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Miracles and Debacles: In Defence of Trade Openness

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  • Arvind Panagariya

Abstract

The central theme of this paper is that sustained rapid growth cannot be achieved without rapid growth in trade. A review of the experience during the past four decades offers virtually no examples of countries achieving sustained rapid growth - called miracles in this paper - without simultaneously experiencing sustained rapid growth in trade in the presence of low or high but declining barriers to trade. Simultaneously, the claim that opening to trade leads to sustained income losses is unfounded. A review of the experience of the countries that have faced stagnation or declining per-capita incomes on a long-term basis - called debacles in this paper - reveals no connection to a sustained surge in imports. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal The World Economy.

Volume (Year): 27 (2004)
Issue (Month): 8 (08)
Pages: 1149-1171

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:27:y:2004:i:8:p:1149-1171

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References

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  1. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Westphal, Larry E, 1990. "Industrial Policy in an Export-Propelled Economy: Lessons from South Korea's Experience," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 41-59, Summer.
  3. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. repec:umd:umdeco:rodriguez9901 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  6. Jagdish N. Bhagwati & T. N. Srinivasan, 1975. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: India," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bhag75-1, June.
  7. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Measuring outward orientation in LDCs: Can it be done?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 307-335, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Yongzheng Yang & Sanjeev Gupta, 2005. "Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa," IMF Working Papers 05/36, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Khaing, Khaing Sape Saw, 2007. "Globalization and Change of Investment Environment in ASEAN," MPRA Paper 42003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Panagariya, Arvind, 2009. "Miracles and debacles revisited," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 556-572, July.
  4. Kym Anderson, 2005. "On the Virtues of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2005-15, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  5. Monojit Chatterji & Sushil Mohan & Sayantan Ghosh Dastidar, 2013. "Relationship between trade openness and economic growth of India: A time series analysis," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 274, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  6. Anderson, Kym, 2004. "The challenge of reducing subsidies and trade barriers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3415, The World Bank.
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2008. "Crises in Emerging Markets Economies: A Global Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmid (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 3, pages 085-115 Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2009. "Globalization and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 164-169, July.
  9. John Romalis, 2007. "Market Access, Openness and Growth," NBER Working Papers 13048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Purba Mukerji & Arvind Panagariya, 2011. "Cost of Protection: A Second Look at the Romer Variety Effect," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 463-477, July.

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