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Do House Price Levels Anticipate Subsequent Price Changes within Metropolitan Areas?

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  • Nai Jia Lee
  • Tracey N. Seslen
  • William C. Wheaton

Abstract

type="main"> This research examines the relationship between hedonically controlled housing price levels and subsequent changes in those prices across locations within MSAs. Are areas with a high price relative to an “imputed rent” paying for higher appreciation? In an efficient market (e.g., Gordon Growth Model), as fundamentals (impute rent) differ across locations and change over time, anticipation of these should generate a positive correlation between (residual) price levels and subsequent price changes. We undertake these tests in four different MSAs using a panel of repeat-sale house price indices that have been scaled to price levels with the hedonic attributes of the house and ZIP code. In three markets we find that identical houses in higher priced ZIP codes subsequently appreciate faster. In one market we find that there is little statistical difference.

Suggested Citation

  • Nai Jia Lee & Tracey N. Seslen & William C. Wheaton, 2015. "Do House Price Levels Anticipate Subsequent Price Changes within Metropolitan Areas?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(3), pages 782-806, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:43:y:2015:i:3:p:782-806
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1540-6229.12098
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Wang, Honglin & Yu, Fan & Zhou, Yinggang, 2018. "Property Investment and Rental Rate under Housing Price Uncertainty: A Real Options Approach," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-051, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    3. Alexander N. Bogin & William M. Doerner & William D. Larson, 2016. "Local House Price Growth Accelerations," FHFA Staff Working Papers 16-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    4. An, Galina & Becker, Charles & Cheng, Enoch, 2021. "Housing price appreciation and economic integration in a transition economy: Evidence from Kazakhstan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. David Gray, 2019. "Medium-term cycles and housing: Is regional integration different?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 56(9), pages 1786-1800, July.
    6. Sumit Agarwal & Artashes Karapetyan, 2022. "Information Salience and Mispricing in Housing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(12), pages 9082-9106, December.
    7. Marzia Morena & Genny Cia & Liala Baiardi & Juan Sebastián Rodríguez Rojas, 2021. "Residential Property Behavior Forecasting in the Metropolitan City of Milan: Socio-Economic Characteristics as Drivers of Residential Market Value Trends," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-25, March.
    8. Eli Beracha & William G. Hardin, 2021. "The housing price premium associated with charter schools," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1267-1289, December.
    9. Alexander N. Bogin & William M. Doerner & William D. Larson, 2019. "Local House Price Paths: Accelerations, Declines, and Recoveries," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 201-222, February.

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