A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh
AbstractClimate change assessments often inadequately address uncertainty when estimating damages. Using a dynamic economy-wide model of Bangladesh, we estimate and decompose damages from historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change. Our stochastic simulation approach avoids biases caused by non-linear damage functions and fixed occurrences of extreme events in historical data. Using ten climate projections, we find that future anthropogenic climate change damages until 2050 are, on average, one-fifth of those from historical climate variability. Climate change also alters the temporal distribution of damages and slows BangladeshÃ¢..s long- run shift (adaptation) into dry (winter) season rice production.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Development Economics.
Volume (Year): 16 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (08)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669
Other versions of this item:
- Thurlow, James & Yu, Winston, 2011. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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