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A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh

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  • James Thurlow
  • Paul Dorosh
  • Winston Yu

Abstract

Climate change assessments often inadequately address uncertainty when estimating damages. Using a dynamic economy-wide model of Bangladesh, we estimate and decompose damages from historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change. Our stochastic simulation approach avoids biases caused by non-linear damage functions and fixed occurrences of extreme events in historical data. Using ten climate projections, we find that future anthropogenic climate change damages until 2050 are, on average, one-fifth of those from historical climate variability. Climate change also alters the temporal distribution of damages and slows Bangladeshâ..s long- run shift (adaptation) into dry (winter) season rice production.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00671.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (08)
Pages: 412-428

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Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:16:y:2012:i:3:p:412-428

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669

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  1. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Zhu, Tingju & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J. & Ringler, Claudia, 2009. "Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 873, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," Working Paper Series wp2010-101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  3. Hassan, Rashid, 2010. "The double challenge of adapting to climate change while accelerating development in sub-Saharan Africa," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(06), pages 661-685, December.
  4. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009. "Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49358, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  5. del Ninno, Carlo & Dorosh, Paul A. & Smith, Lisa C. & Roy, Dilip K., 2001. "The 1998 floods in Bangladesh: disaster impacts, household coping strategies, and responses," Research reports 122, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  6. Block, Paul J. & Strzepek, Kenneth & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Diao, Xinshen, 2006. "Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia:," EPTD discussion papers 150, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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Cited by:
  1. Davis, Peter & Ali, Snigdha, 2014. "Exploring local perceptions of climate change impact and adaptation in rural Bangladesh:," IFPRI discussion papers 1322, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Arndt, Channing & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James, 2012. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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