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Towards 2021: Examining Alternative Growth Scenarios for Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Banerjee, Onil

    (Corresponding author)

  • M Mahzab , Moogdho

    (Research Associate)

  • Asaduzzaman, M

    (Professorial Fellow)

Abstract

Bangladesh aims to reach the middle income country status by 2021. This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the key drivers of growth including population, factor productivity growth and climate change. The results show that small changes in population and productivity growth have a greater impact than climate change and, in a business as usual scenario, 2021 targets would be reached in 2031. For reaching the middle-income country status by 2021, the country requires a 3.5 per cent productivity growth yielding a GDP and GDP growth of $366.1 billion and nearly 12 per cent respectively. It is also estimated that reducing the impact of climate change by 25 per cent would save $5.06 million annually.

Suggested Citation

  • Banerjee, Onil & M Mahzab , Moogdho & Asaduzzaman, M, 2015. "Towards 2021: Examining Alternative Growth Scenarios for Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 38(01), pages 77-100, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:badest:0779
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Thurlow & Paul Dorosh & Winston Yu, 2012. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 412-428, August.
    2. Kumar, Praduman & Mittal, Surabhi & Hossain, Mahabub, 2008. "Agricultural Growth Accounting and Total Factor Productivity in South Asia: A Review and Policy Implications," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 21(2).
    3. Kelvin Balcombe & Iain Fraser & Mizanur Rahman & Laurence Smith, 2007. "Examining the technical efficiency of rice producers in Bangladesh," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-16.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bangladesh; Middle Income; Total Factor Productivity; Climate Change; Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative

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