A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh
AbstractClimate change assessments often inadequately address uncertainty when estimating damages. Using a dynamic economy-wide model of Bangladesh, we estimate and decompose damages from historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change. Our stochastic simulation approach avoids biases caused by non-linear damage functions and fixed occurrences of extreme events in historical data. Using ten climate projections, we find that future anthropogenic climate change damages until 2050 are, on average, one-fifth of those from historical climate variability. Climate change also alters the temporal distribution of damages and slows Bangladeshâ..s long- run shift (adaptation) into dry (winter) season rice production.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number UNU-WIDER Research Paper WP2011/86.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
climate change; uncertainty; stochastic simulation; CGE model; agriculture; Bangladesh;
Other versions of this item:
- James Thurlow & Paul Dorosh & Winston Yu, 2012. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 412-428, 08.
- NEP-AGR-2012-03-28 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2012-03-28 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2012-03-28 (Environmental Economics)
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