IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jtsera/v41y2020i6p733-758.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tests for conditional heteroscedasticity of functional data

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory Rice
  • Tony Wirjanto
  • Yuqian Zhao

Abstract

Functional data objects derived from high‐frequency financial data often exhibit volatility clustering. Versions of functional generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (FGARCH) models have recently been proposed to describe such data, however so far basic diagnostic tests for these models are not available. We propose two portmanteau type tests to measure conditional heteroscedasticity in the squares of asset return curves. A complete asymptotic theory is provided for each test. We also show how such tests can be adapted and applied to model residuals to evaluate adequacy, and inform order selection, of FGARCH models. Simulation results show that both tests have good size and power to detect conditional heteroscedasticity and model mis‐specification in finite samples. In an application, the tests show that intra‐day asset return curves exhibit conditional heteroscedasticity. This conditional heteroscedasticity cannot be explained by the magnitude of inter‐daily returns alone, but it can be adequately modeled by an FGARCH(1,1) model.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Rice & Tony Wirjanto & Yuqian Zhao, 2020. "Tests for conditional heteroscedasticity of functional data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(6), pages 733-758, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:41:y:2020:i:6:p:733-758
    DOI: 10.1111/jtsa.12532
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12532
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jtsa.12532?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Horváth, Lajos & Kokoszka, Piotr & Rice, Gregory, 2014. "Testing stationarity of functional time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 66-82.
    2. Zhang, Xianyang, 2016. "White noise testing and model diagnostic checking for functional time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 76-95.
    3. Y. K. Tse, 2002. "Residual-based diagnostics for conditional heteroscedasticity models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 358-374, June.
    4. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-844.
    5. Alexander Aue & Lajos Horváth & Daniel F. Pellatt, 2017. "Functional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 3-21, January.
    6. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    7. Paul Catani & Timo Teräsvirta & Meiqun Yin, 2017. "A Lagrange multiplier test for testing the adequacy of constant conditional correlation GARCH model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 599-621, October.
    8. Aguilar, Mike & Hill, Jonathan B., 2015. "Robust score and portmanteau tests of volatility spillover," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 37-61.
    9. Panayiotis Constantinou & Piotr Kokoszka & Matthew Reimherr, 2018. "Testing Separability of Functional Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 731-747, September.
    10. Koopman, Siem Jan & Jungbacker, Borus & Hol, Eugenie, 2005. "Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-475, June.
    11. Hörmann, Siegfried & Horváth, Lajos & Reeder, Ron, 2013. "A Functional Version Of The Arch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 267-288, April.
    12. Horváth, Lajos & Hušková, Marie & Rice, Gregory, 2013. "Test of independence for functional data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 100-119.
    13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    14. W. K. Li & T. K. Mak, 1994. "On The Squared Residual Autocorrelations In Non‐Linear Time Series With Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(6), pages 627-636, November.
    15. Y. K. Tse & A. K. C. Tsui, 1999. "A Note on Diagnosing Multivariate Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(6), pages 679-691, November.
    16. Piotr Kokoszka & Matthew Reimherr, 2013. "Predictability of shapes of intraday price curves," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(3), pages 285-308, October.
    17. Gabrys, Robertas & Kokoszka, Piotr, 2007. "Portmanteau Test of Independence for Functional Observations," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1338-1348, December.
    18. A. I. McLeod & W. K. Li, 1983. "Diagnostic Checking Arma Time Series Models Using Squared‐Residual Autocorrelations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 269-273, July.
    19. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rice, Gregory & Wirjanto, Tony & Zhao, Yuqian, 2023. "Exploring volatility of crude oil intraday return curves: A functional GARCH-X model," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    2. Horváth, Lajos & Rice, Gregory & Zhao, Yuqian, 2022. "Change point analysis of covariance functions: A weighted cumulative sum approach," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    3. Chenlei Leng & Degui Li & Hanlin Shang & Yingcun Xia, 2024. "Covariance Function Estimation for High-Dimensional Functional Time Series with Dual Factor Structures," Papers 2401.05784, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Zhao, Yuqian, 2021. "Validating intra-day risk premium in cross-sectional return curves," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    6. James Cameron & Pramita Bagchi, 2022. "A test for heteroscedasticity in functional linear models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 31(2), pages 519-542, June.
    7. Bouri, Elie & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Saeed, Tareq & Wang, Shixuan & Zhao, Yuqian, 2021. "On the intraday return curves of Bitcoin: Predictability and trading opportunities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Han Lin Shang & Kaiying Ji, 2023. "Forecasting intraday financial time series with sieve bootstrapping and dynamic updating," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 1973-1988, December.
    9. Rice, Gregory & Wirjanto, Tony & Zhao, Yuqian, 2021. "Exploring volatility of crude oil intra-day return curves: a functional GARCH-X Model," MPRA Paper 109231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Qiang Ji & Dayong Zhang & Yuqian Zhao, 2022. "Intra-day co-movements of crude oil futures: China and the international benchmarks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 77-103, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rice, Gregory & Wirjanto, Tony & Zhao, Yuqian, 2019. "Tests for conditional heteroscedasticity with functional data and goodness-of-fit tests for FGARCH models," MPRA Paper 93048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    3. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2007. "Multivariate GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 669, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 18 Jan 2008.
    4. Horváth, Lajos & Liu, Zhenya & Rice, Gregory & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "A functional time series analysis of forward curves derived from commodity futures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 646-665.
    5. Rice, Gregory & Wirjanto, Tony & Zhao, Yuqian, 2020. "Forecasting value at risk with intra-day return curves," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1023-1038.
    6. Cerovecki, Clément & Francq, Christian & Hörmann, Siegfried & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2019. "Functional GARCH models: The quasi-likelihood approach and its applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 353-375.
    7. Duchesne, Pierre, 2004. "On matricial measures of dependence in vector ARCH models with applications to diagnostic checking," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 149-160, June.
    8. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654.
    9. Yi-Ting Chen, 2008. "A unified approach to standardized-residuals-based correlation tests for GARCH-type models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 111-133.
    10. Duchesne, Pierre, 2006. "Testing for multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity using wavelets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2142-2163, December.
    11. Zhang, Xianyang, 2016. "White noise testing and model diagnostic checking for functional time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 76-95.
    12. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Thresholds, news impact surfaces and dynamic asymmetric multivariate GARCH," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(2), pages 125-163, May.
    13. Yanan Li & David E. Giles, 2015. "Modelling Volatility Spillover Effects Between Developed Stock Markets and Asian Emerging Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 155-177, March.
    14. Isao Ishida & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2009. "Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of the Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Using the ARFIMA-GARCH Model," CARF F-Series CARF-F-145, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    15. Aloui, Chaker & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hamida, Hela ben, 2015. "Global factors driving structural changes in the co-movement between sharia stocks and sukuk in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 311-329.
    16. Halkos, George E. & Tsirivis, Apostolos S., 2019. "Effective energy commodity risk management: Econometric modeling of price volatility," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 234-250.
    17. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2013. "Translating financial integration into correlation risk: A weekly reporting's viewpoint for the volatility behavior of stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 776-791.
    18. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "A GARCH approach to model short‐term interest rates: Evidence from Spanish economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1621-1632, April.
    19. Paul Catani & Timo Teräsvirta & Meiqun Yin, 2017. "A Lagrange multiplier test for testing the adequacy of constant conditional correlation GARCH model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 599-621, October.
    20. Andreou, Elena & Werker, Bas J.M., 2015. "Residual-based rank specification tests for AR–GARCH type models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 305-331.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:41:y:2020:i:6:p:733-758. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0143-9782 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.