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Functional generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity

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  • Aue, Alexander
  • Horvath, Lajos
  • Pellatt, Daniel

Abstract

Heteroskedasticity is a common feature of financial time series and is commonly addressed in the model building process through the use of ARCH and GARCH processes. More recently multivariate variants of these processes have been in the focus of research with attention given to methods seeking an efficient and economic estimation of a large number of model parameters. Due to the need for estimation of many parameters, however, these models may not be suitable for modeling now prevalent high-frequency volatility data. One potentially useful way to bypass these issues is to take a functional approach. In this paper, theory is developed for a new functional version of the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic process, termed fGARCH. The main results are concerned with the structure of the fGARCH(1,1) process, providing criteria for the existence of a strictly stationary solutions both in the space of square-integrable and continuous functions. An estimation procedure is introduced and its consistency verified. A small empirical study highlights potential applications to intraday volatility estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Aue, Alexander & Horvath, Lajos & Pellatt, Daniel, 2015. "Functional generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," MPRA Paper 67702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:67702
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shaher Al-Gounmeein Remal & Ismail Mohd Tahir, 2021. "Modelling and forecasting monthly Brent crude oil prices: a long memory and volatility approach," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 29-54, March.
    2. Rice, Gregory & Wirjanto, Tony & Zhao, Yuqian, 2020. "Forecasting value at risk with intra-day return curves," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1023-1038.
    3. Han Lin Shang & Yang Yang, 2021. "Forecasting Australian subnational age-specific mortality rates," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Gregory Rice & Tony Wirjanto & Yuqian Zhao, 2020. "Tests for conditional heteroscedasticity of functional data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(6), pages 733-758, November.
    5. Horváth, Lajos & Liu, Zhenya & Rice, Gregory & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "A functional time series analysis of forward curves derived from commodity futures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 646-665.
    6. Horváth, Lajos & Rice, Gregory & Zhao, Yuqian, 2022. "Change point analysis of covariance functions: A weighted cumulative sum approach," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    7. Gregory Rice & Han Lin Shang, 2017. "A Plug-in Bandwidth Selection Procedure for Long-Run Covariance Estimation with Stationary Functional Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 591-609, July.
    8. Baye Matar Kandji, 2023. "On the growth rate of superadditive processes and the stability of functional GARCH models," Working Papers 2023-07, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    9. Rodney V. Fonseca & Aluísio Pinheiro, 2020. "Wavelet estimation of the dimensionality of curve time series," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 72(5), pages 1175-1204, October.
    10. Rice, Gregory & Wirjanto, Tony & Zhao, Yuqian, 2023. "Exploring volatility of crude oil intraday return curves: A functional GARCH-X model," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    11. Rice, Gregory & Wirjanto, Tony & Zhao, Yuqian, 2021. "Exploring volatility of crude oil intra-day return curves: a functional GARCH-X Model," MPRA Paper 109231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Cerovecki, Clément & Francq, Christian & Hörmann, Siegfried & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2019. "Functional GARCH models: The quasi-likelihood approach and its applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 353-375.
    13. Characiejus, Vaidotas & Rice, Gregory, 2020. "A general white noise test based on kernel lag-window estimates of the spectral density operator," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 175-196.
    14. B. Cooper Boniece & Lajos Horv'ath & Lorenzo Trapani, 2023. "On changepoint detection in functional data using empirical energy distance," Papers 2310.04853, arXiv.org.
    15. Gao, Yuan & Shang, Han Lin & Yang, Yanrong, 2019. "High-dimensional functional time series forecasting: An application to age-specific mortality rates," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 232-243.
    16. Zdeněk Hlávka & Marie Hušková & Simos G. Meintanis, 2021. "Testing serial independence with functional data," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 30(3), pages 603-629, September.
    17. Rice, Gregory & Wirjanto, Tony & Zhao, Yuqian, 2019. "Tests for conditional heteroscedasticity with functional data and goodness-of-fit tests for FGARCH models," MPRA Paper 93048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Phillip A. Jang & David S. Matteson, 2023. "Spatial correlation in weather forecast accuracy: a functional time series approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 1215-1229, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometrics; Financial time series; Functional data; GARCH processes; Stationary solutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics

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