Merits and Drawbacks of Variance Targeting in GARCH Models
AbstractVariance targeting estimation (VTE) is a technique used to alleviate the numerical difficulties encountered in the quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) of GARCH models. It relies on a reparameterization of the model and a first-step estimation of the unconditional variance. The remaining parameters are estimated by quasi maximum likelihood (QML) in a second step. This paper establishes the asymptotic distribution of the estimators obtained by this method in univariate GARCH models. Comparisons with the standard QML are provided and the merits of the variance targeting method are discussed. In particular, it is shown that when the model is misspecified, the VTE can be superior to the QMLE for long-term prediction or value-at-risk calculation. An empirical application based on stock market indices is proposed. Copyright The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org., Oxford University Press.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Society for Financial Econometrics in its journal Journal of Financial Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 9 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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- Christian FRANCQ & Lajos HORVATH & Jean-Michel ZAKOIAN, 2009. "Merits and Drawbacks of Variance Targeting in GARCH Models," Working Papers 2009-17, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Francq, Christian & Horvath, Lajos & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2009. "Merits and drawbacks of variance targeting in GARCH models," MPRA Paper 15143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
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