IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jecsur/v36y2022i1p235-268.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantitative easing and economic growth in Japan: A meta‐analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandra Ferreira‐Lopes
  • Pedro Linhares
  • Luís Filipe Martins
  • Tiago Neves Sequeira

Abstract

We present an original meta‐probit analysis for the effect of the Bank of Japan monetary policy on economic growth for the period 2001–2020, using 45 studies. We use impulse response functions in VAR type models to assess if the effects on output of unconventional monetary policies are significant (positive or negative) or not. Funnel asymmetry and precision effect tests do not provide a striking evidence of publication bias. Additionally, we do not find a consensus regarding the output growth effects during the quantitative easing years. Besides variables linked with the studies’ methodological features, other variables such as industrial production and the price level have a greater effect on the probability of reporting statistically significant (positive) effects of quantitative easing on output growth. However, one of the most important (policy) implications of our study is that the evidence for a significant real effect of unconventional monetary policy is weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra Ferreira‐Lopes & Pedro Linhares & Luís Filipe Martins & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2022. "Quantitative easing and economic growth in Japan: A meta‐analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 235-268, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:36:y:2022:i:1:p:235-268
    DOI: 10.1111/joes.12449
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12449
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/joes.12449?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buch, Claudia M. & Bussierè, Matthieu & Goldberg, Linda & Hills, Robert, 2019. "The international transmission of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 29-48.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    3. Fabo, Brian & Jančoková, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth & Pástor, Ľuboš, 2021. "Fifty shades of QE: Comparing findings of central bankers and academics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-20.
    4. Kline Patrick & Santos Andres, 2012. "A Score Based Approach to Wild Bootstrap Inference," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 23-41, August.
    5. Colin B. Begg & Jesse A. Berlin, 1988. "Publication Bias: A Problem in Interpreting Medical Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 151(3), pages 419-445, May.
    6. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    7. Domenico Lombardi & Pierre Siklos & Samantha St. Amand, 2018. "A Survey Of The International Evidence And Lessons Learned About Unconventional Monetary Policies: Is A ‘New Normal’ In Our Future?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 1229-1256, December.
    8. T. D. Stanley, 2008. "Meta‐Regression Methods for Detecting and Estimating Empirical Effects in the Presence of Publication Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 103-127, February.
    9. Heather Montgomery & Ulrich Volz, 2019. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Japan," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 411-416, April.
    10. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.
    11. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1984. "Convenient specification tests for logit and probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 241-262, July.
    12. Edward C. Norton & Hua Wang & Chunrong Ai, 2004. "Computing interaction effects and standard errors in logit and probit models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(2), pages 154-167, June.
    13. Brian Fabo & Martina Jancokova & Elisabeth Kempf & Lubos Pastor, 2020. "Fifty Shades of QE: Conflicts of Interest in Economic Research," Working Papers 2020-128, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    14. Ganelli, Giovanni & Tawk, Nour, 2019. "Spillovers from Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policy: A global VAR Approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 147-163.
    15. T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Beyond Publication Bias," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 309-345, July.
    16. David Roodman & James G. MacKinnon & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Matthew D. Webb, 2019. "Fast and wild: Bootstrap inference in Stata using boottest," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 19(1), pages 4-60, March.
    17. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    18. Kimura Takeshi & Nakajima Jouchi, 2016. "Identifying conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks: a latent threshold approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 277-300, January.
    19. Harvey, A C, 1976. "Estimating Regression Models with Multiplicative Heteroscedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(3), pages 461-465, May.
    20. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    21. Kluve, Jochen., 2016. "A review of the effectiveness of active labour market programmes with a focus on Latin America and the Caribbean," ILO Working Papers 994901193402676, International Labour Organization.
    22. Dekle, Robert & Hamada, Koichi, 2015. "Japanese monetary policy and international spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 175-199.
    23. Hiroshi Ugai, "undated". "Transmission Channels and Welfare Implications of Unconventional Monetary Easing Policy in Japan," Working Papers e102, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    24. Danny Pitzel & Lenno Uusküla, 2007. "The Effect of Financial Depth on Monetary Transmission," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 63-73, May.
    25. Claeskens,Gerda & Hjort,Nils Lid, 2008. "Model Selection and Model Averaging," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521852258.
    26. Hiroshi Ugai, 2015. "Transmission Channels and Welfare Implications of Unconventional Monetary Easing Policy in Japan," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 060, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Dec 2015.
    27. Hristos Doucouliagos & T. D. Stanley, 2009. "Publication Selection Bias in Minimum‐Wage Research? A Meta‐Regression Analysis," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 406-428, June.
    28. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    29. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Nijkamp, 2010. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Activity - Evidence from a Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-043/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    30. Papadamou, Stephanos & Kyriazis, Νikolaos A. & Tzeremes, Panayiotis G., 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy effects on output and inflation: A meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 295-305.
    31. T. D. Stanley, 2001. "Wheat from Chaff: Meta-analysis as Quantitative Literature Review," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 131-150, Summer.
    32. Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos & Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2020. "A survey of empirical findings on unconventional central bank policies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(7), pages 1533-1577, April.
    33. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Pau Rabanal & Damiano Sandri, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policies in the Euro Area, Japan, and the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 147-172, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kiyotoshi Kou & Yi Dou & Ichiro Arai, 2024. "Analysis of the Forces Driving Public Hospitals’ Operating Costs Using LMDI Decomposition: The Case of Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Stephen Anthony & Hamid Yahyaei, 2022. "Bringing Credibility Back to Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 41(3), pages 276-295, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lan Nguyen, Thi Mai & Papyrakis, Elissaios & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2021. "Publication bias in the price effects of monetary policy: A meta-regression analysis for emerging and developing economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 567-583.
    2. Thi Mai Lan Nguyen, 2020. "Output Effects of Monetary Policy in Emerging and Developing Countries: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 68-85, January.
    3. Irsova, Zuzana & Doucouliagos, Hristos & Havranek, Tomas & Stanley, T. D., 2023. "Meta-Analysis of Social Science Research: A Practitioner’s Guide," EconStor Preprints 273719, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Stanley, T. D. & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2011. "Meta-regression approximations to reduce publication selection bias," Working Papers eco_2011_4, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    6. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik, 2020. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Prices - How Strong is the Transmission?," Working Papers 2020/14, Czech National Bank.
    7. Cazachevici, Alina & Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Remittances and economic growth: A meta-analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    9. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2012. "Survey Article: Publication Bias in the Literature on Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(10), pages 1375-1396, October.
    10. Hang, Markus & Geyer-Klingeberg, Jerome & Rathgeber, Andreas W. & Stöckl, Stefan, 2018. "Measurement matters—A meta-study of the determinants of corporate capital structure," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 211-225.
    11. Anna Sokolova & Todd Sorensen, 2021. "Monopsony in Labor Markets: A Meta-Analysis," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 74(1), pages 27-55, January.
    12. Petra Valickova & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2015. "Financial Development And Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 506-526, July.
    13. Ali Elminejad & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Zuzana Irsova, 2023. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: A Meta-Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1095-1113, December.
    14. Ma, Chunbo & Rogers, Abbie A. & Kragt, Marit E. & Zhang, Fan & Polyakov, Maksym & Gibson, Fiona & Chalak, Morteza & Pandit, Ram & Tapsuwan, Sorada, 2015. "Consumers’ willingness to pay for renewable energy: A meta-regression analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 93-109.
    15. Iryna Printezis & Carola Grebitus & Stefan Hirsch, 2019. "The price is right!? A meta-regression analysis on willingness to pay for local food," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, May.
    16. Stefan Stöckl, 2017. "Measurement matters - A meta-Study of the determinants of corporate capital structure," Post-Print hal-01772346, HAL.
    17. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Lind, Ronja, 2020. "Macroeconomic impact of Basel III: Evidence from a meta-analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    18. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2011. "Estimating vertical spillovers from FDI: Why results vary and what the true effect is," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 234-244.
    19. Stanley, T.D. & Doucouliagos, Chris & Jarrell, Stephen B., 2008. "Meta-regression analysis as the socio-economics of economics research," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 276-292, February.
    20. Stanley, T. D. & Doucouliagos, Chris, 2019. "Practical Significance, Meta-Analysis and the Credibility of Economics," IZA Discussion Papers 12458, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:36:y:2022:i:1:p:235-268. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0950-0804 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.