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Adaptive Learning in an Expectational Difference Equation with Several Lags: Selecting among Learnable REE

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Mikael Bask

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Abstract

"It is demonstrated that adaptive learning in the least squares sense may be incapable of satisfactorily reducing the number of attainable equilibria in a rational expectations model when focusing on the forward-solutions to the model. The model examined, as an illustration, is a basic asset pricing model for exchange rate determination that is augmented with technical trading in the currency market in the form of moving averages since it is the most commonly used technique according to questionnaire surveys. The forward-solutions to such a model are preferable to the backward-solutions that are normally utilized since announcement effects is an important feature in currency trade. Because of technical trading in foreign exchange, the current exchange rate depends on""j"max"lags of the exchange rate, meaning that the model has""j"max+1"rational expectations equilibria, where several of them are adaptively learnable in the least squares sense. However, since past exchange rates should not affect the current exchange rate when technical trading is absent, it is possible to single out a unique equilibrium among the adaptively learnable equilibria that is economically meaningful. It is worth noting that the model examined can also be viewed as a model for stock price determination in which the forward-solutions to the model are preferable to the backward-solutions since the importance of announcement effects is a common characteristic for currency and stock markets." Copyright 2007 The Author Journal compilation (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2007.00436.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing Ltd in its journal European Financial Management.

Volume (Year): 14 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 99-117
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Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:14:y:2008:i:1:p:99-117

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-18, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bask , Mikael, 2006. "Announcement effects on exchange rate movements: continuity as a selection criterion among the REE," Research Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Oberlechner, Thomas, 2001. "Importance of Technical and Fundamental Analysis in the European Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 81-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Francis , Bill B & Hasan , Iftekhar & Sun , Xian, 2006. "Financial market integration and the value of global diversification: evidence from US acquirers in cross-border mergers and acquisitions," Research Discussion Papers 24/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Marsh , Ian W, 2006. "The effect of lenders’ credit risk transfer activities on borrowing firms’ equity returns," Research Discussion Papers 31/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jokivuolle , Esa & Peura , Samu, 2006. "Rating targeting and the confidence levels implicit in bank capital," Research Discussion Papers 27/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kilponen , Juha & Kinnunen , Helvi & Ripatti , Antti, 2006. "Population ageing in a small open economy – some policy experiments with a tractable general equilibrium model," Research Discussion Papers 28/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bask , Mikael & Liu , Tung & Widerberg , Anna, 2006. "The stability of electricity prices: estimation and inference of the Lyapunov exponents," Research Discussion Papers 9/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Mikael Bask, 2009. "Announcement effects on exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 64-84. [Downloadable!]
  7. Toporowski , Jan, 2006. "Open market operations: beyond the new consensus," Research Discussion Papers 14/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ravenna , Federico & Seppälä , Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jokipii , Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2006. "Contagion and interdependence: measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Research Discussion Papers 15/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Jokipii, Terhi, 2006. "Forecasting market crashes: further international evidence," Research Discussion Papers 22/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  11. Aalto-Setälä , Ville & Schindler, Robert, 2006. "The importance of attractive prices in pricing dynamics," Research Discussion Papers 30/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  12. Välimäki , Tuomas, 2006. "Why the marginal MRO rate exceeds the ECB policy rate?," Research Discussion Papers 20/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  13. Anandarajan , Asokan & Hasan , Iftekhar & McCarthy , Cornelia, 2006. "The use of loan loss provisions for capital management, earnings management and signalling by Australian banks," Research Discussion Papers 23/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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