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Announcement effects on exchange rates

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  • Mikael Bask

    (Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland, Finland)

Abstract

An asset pricing model for exchange rate determination is presented, where technical analysis in currency trade is incorporated in the form of a moving average technique. As a result, the model has j max +1 rational expectations equilibria (REE), where j max is large, since j max past exchange rates affect the current rate due to technical analysis. There is, however, a unique REE that is economically relevant, and focusing on this REE, it is shown that the exchange rate is much more sensitive to a change in money supply than when technical analysis is absent in currency trade. This result is important since it sheds light on the so-called exchange rate disconnect puzzle in international finance. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 14 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 64-84

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:14:y:2009:i:1:p:64-84

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References

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  1. Mikael Bask, 2008. "Adaptive Learning in an Expectational Difference Equation with Several Lags: Selecting among Learnable REE," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(1), pages 99-117.
  2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 251, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  4. Paul De Grauwe & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2006. "Learning to Forecast the Exchange Rate: Two Competing Approaches," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 367, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Menkhoff, L., 1998. "The noise trading approach -- questionnaire evidence from foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 547-564, June.
  6. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  7. Oberlechner, Thomas, 2001. "Importance of Technical and Fundamental Analysis in the European Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 81-93, January.
  8. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338.
  9. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-18, October.
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1986. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 24-38, Supplemen.
  12. Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June.
  13. Bennett T. McCallum, 1981. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Mikael Bask, 2007. "Chartism and exchange rate volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 301-316.
  15. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  16. Zeeman, E. C., 1974. "On the unstable behaviour of stock exchanges," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-49, March.
  17. Cars H. Hommes, 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-056/1, Tinbergen Institute.
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Cited by:
  1. Mikael Bask & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Fundamentals and Technical Trading: Behavior of Exchange Rates in the CEECs," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 589-605, November.

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