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Old and new problems in the estimation of national accounts in transiton economies1

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  • Kasper Bartholdy

Abstract

The paper discusses the measurement and interpretation of real GDP in transition economies. It argues that the statistical offices in Eastern Europe, the Baltics and the CIS should place emphasis in the years ahead on improving the mechanism by which estimates of output, consumption, investment and foreign trade are balanced to ensure compliance with standard accounting identities. Improvements to this ‘balancing mechanism’may substantially strengthen the reliability of national accounts data and would not necessarily require a major further financial outlay for the statistical offices. In its discussion of the interpretation of real GDP data, the paper demonstrates that the use of the measured change in output at constant prices as a proxy for the evolution of ‘social welfare’may be particularly problematic in the context of transition economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kasper Bartholdy, 1997. "Old and new problems in the estimation of national accounts in transiton economies1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(1), pages 131-146, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:5:y:1997:i:1:p:131-146
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0351.1997.tb00007.x
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    1. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kent Osband, 1991. "Index Number Biases During Price Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 1991/076, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Kimberly D. Zieschang, 1995. "Methodologies of Price Indices in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 1995/106, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Evgeny Gavrilenkov & Mr. Vincent Koen, 1994. "How Large Was the the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications," IMF Working Papers 1994/154, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Timothy D. Lane, 1991. "Inflation Stabilization and Economic Transformation in Poland: The First Year," IMF Working Papers 1991/070, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Richard Stone & D. G. Champernowne & J. E. Meade, 1942. "The Precision of National Income Estimates," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 111-125.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    2. Nauro F. Campos & Roman Horváth, 2006. "Reform Redux: Measurement, Determinants and Reversals," Working Papers IES 2006/16, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    3. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Lysenko, Tatiana & Sanfey, Peter, 2006. "Reforms and growth in transition: Re-examining the evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 421-445, September.
    4. Holz, Carsten A., 2014. "The quality of China's GDP statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 309-338.
    5. Sašo Polanec, 2004. "Convergence at Last? : Evidence from Transition Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 55-80, July.
    6. Chen, Shuo & Qiao, Xue & Zhu, Zhitao, 2021. "Chasing or cheating? Theory and evidence on China's GDP manipulation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 657-671.

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