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Predicting the Monthly and Annual Current Account Balance from Provisional Data

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  • RONALD BEWLEY
  • THOMAS PARRY

Abstract

This paper uses provisional monthly data to predict the one‐month‐ahead and one‐year‐ahead current account balance. Single‐equation methods are compared to an eight‐equation VAR model that utilizes the Box‐Tiao (1977) modifications. It is found that the single‐equation model of the current account out‐performs the system method for the short‐ term but the positions are reversed for the annual forecast

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald Bewley & Thomas Parry, 1991. "Predicting the Monthly and Annual Current Account Balance from Provisional Data," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(4), pages 317-330, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:67:y:1991:i:4:p:317-330
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1991.tb02561.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aigner, D.J. & Goldfeld, S.M., 1974. "Estimation and prediction from aggregate data when aggregates are measured more accurately than their components," LIDAM Reprints CORE 190, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Aigner, Dennis J & Goldfeld, Stephen M, 1974. "Estimation and Prediction from Aggregate Data when Aggregates are Measured More Accurately than Their Components," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, January.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    1. Bewley, Ronald, 1997. "The forecast process and academic research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 433-437, December.
    2. Williams, Christine H. & Bewley, Ronald A., 1993. "Price Arbitrage Between Queensland Cattle Auctions," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 37(1), pages 1-23, April.

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