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Estimated Macroeconomic Effects Of The U.S. Stimulus Bill

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  • RAY C. FAIR
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    Abstract

    "This paper uses a multicountry macroeconometric model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of the U.S. stimulus bill passed in February 2009. The analysis has the advantage of taking into account many endogenous effects. Real U.S. output is estimated to be $554 billion larger when summed over the 12-year period 2009:1-2020:4 (0.29% of the total sum of output). The average number of jobs is 509 thousand larger (0.37%). There is some redistribution of output and employment away from 2012 to 2015. At the end of 2020, the federal government debt is larger by $637 billion in real terms (the debt/GDP ratio is larger by 3.19 percentage points), which may increase the risk of negative asset-market reactions." ("JEL" E17) Copyright (c) 2010 Western Economic Association International.

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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1465-7287.2010.00221.x
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Contemporary Economic Policy.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 (October)
    Pages: 439-452

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:28:y:2010:i:4:p:439-452

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    Cited by:
    1. Felix Reichling & Charles Whalen, 2012. "Assessing the Short-Term Effects on Output of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies: Working Paper 2012-08," Working Papers 43278, Congressional Budget Office.

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