Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill
AbstractThis paper uses a multicountry macroeconometric model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of the U.S. stimulus bill passed in February 2009. The analysis has the advantage of taking into account many endogenous effects. Real U.S. output is estimated to be $554 billion larger when summed over the 12-year period 2009:1-2020:4 (0.29 percent of the total sum of output). The average number of jobs is 509 thousand larger (0.37 percent). There is some redistribution of output and employment away from 2012-2015. At the end of 2020 the federal government debt is larger by $637 billion in real terms (the debt/GDP ratio is larger by 3.19 percentage points), which may increase the risk of negative asset-market reactions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1756.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Contemporary Economic Policy (October 2010), 439-452
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-03-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2010-03-20 (Business Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-03-20 (Macroeconomics)
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