Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits
AbstractThis paper uses a multicountry macroeconometric model to analyze possible macroeconomic consequences of large future U.S. federal government deficits. The analysis has the advantage of accounting for the endogeneity of the deficit. In the baseline run, which assumes no large tax increases or spending cuts and no bad dollar and stock market shocks, the debt/GDP ratio rises substantially through 2020. The estimates from this run are in line with other estimates. Various experiments off the baseline run are then done. If the dollar depreciates, inflation increases but the effect on the debt/GDP ratio is modest. It does not appear that the United States can inflate its way out of its debt problem. If U.S. stock prices fall, this makes matters worse since output is lower because of a negative wealth effect. Personal tax increases or transfer payment decreases of three percent of nominal GDP solve the debt problem, at a cost of a real output loss of about 1.6 percent over the next decade. The Fed's ability to offset these losses is modest according to the model. Introducing a national sales tax is more contractionary than is increasing personal income taxes or decreasing transfer payments.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1727.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision: Feb 2010
Publication status: Published in Jeffrey Brown (ed.), Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, University of Chicago Press, 2010, Ch. 4
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Phone: (203) 432-3702
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Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Other versions of this item:
- Ray C. Fair, 2010. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 25, pages 89-108 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-10-03 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-10-03 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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"Testing price equations,"
European Economic Review,
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"Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy,"
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- Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1298, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2003.
- Jordi Gal� & Mark Gertler, 2007.
"Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 13542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation," Economics Working Papers 1039, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2007.
- Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1706, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2010.
- Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Has Macro Progressed?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1728, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2010.
- Ray Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2443, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2009.
- Ray C. Fair, 2010. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1756, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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