IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/brjirl/v56y2018i1p189-222.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short†Time Work and Employment Stability: Evidence from a Policy Change

Author

Listed:
  • José M. Arranz
  • Carlos García†Serrano
  • Virginia Hernanz

Abstract

This paper investigates whether short†time work (STW) programmes achieve their stated goal of being devices intended to preserve jobs and keep workers employed in times of crisis. Our identification strategy exploits a change in the financial incentives provided to employers and employees for the temporary suspension of work contracts or the reduction of working time. We use longitudinal administrative data and estimate difference†in†differences regressions and instrumental variable bivariate probit models with endogenous covariates, which try to take account of the potential endogeneity of participation in STW. Our results suggest that discretionary policy changes in the incentives of STW schemes can be effective in the short run but they lose their ability when the decline in demand and the lack of work are more permanent.

Suggested Citation

  • José M. Arranz & Carlos García†Serrano & Virginia Hernanz, 2018. "Short†Time Work and Employment Stability: Evidence from a Policy Change," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 189-222, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:brjirl:v:56:y:2018:i:1:p:189-222
    DOI: 10.1111/bjir.12250
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/bjir.12250
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/bjir.12250?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oana Calavrezo & Richard Duhautois & Emmanuelle Walkowiak, 2007. "The Short-Time Compensation Program in France: an Efficient Measure Against Redundancies?," Post-Print halshs-00273367, HAL.
    2. Karl BRENKE & Ulf RINNE & Klaus F. ZIMMERMANN, 2013. "Short-time work: The German answer to the Great Recession," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 152(2), pages 287-305, June.
    3. Lutz Bellmann & Hans-Dieter Gerner & Richard Upward, 2015. "The Response of German Establishments to the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Pasquale Commendatore & Saime Kayam & Ingrid Kubin (ed.), Complexity and Geographical Economics, edition 127, pages 165-207, Springer.
    4. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2010. "Active Labour Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(548), pages 452-477, November.
    5. Lechner, Michael, 2011. "The Estimation of Causal Effects by Difference-in-Difference Methods," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 165-224, November.
    6. Richard Duhautois & Emmanuelle Walkowiak & Oana Calavrezo, 2009. "The Substitution of Worksharing and Short-Time Compensation in France: A Difference-in-differences Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 820-833.
    7. Cahuc, Pierre & Carcillo, Stéphane, 2011. "Is Short-Time Work a Good Method to Keep Unemployment Down?," IZA Discussion Papers 5430, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Jones, A., 2007. "Applied Econometrics for Health Economists: A Practical Guide," Monographs, Office of Health Economics, number 000262.
    9. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias, 2009. "Alternative Approaches to Evaluation in Empirical Microeconomics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(3).
    10. Van Audenrode, Marc A, 1994. "Short-Time Compensation: Job Security, and Employment Contracts: Evidence from Selected OECD Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 76-102, February.
    11. Rouslan Koumakhov & Boris Najman, 2001. "La question des sureffectifs en Russie. Une explication en termes de compétences," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 52(4), pages 915-941.
    12. Balleer, Almut & Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2016. "Does short-time work save jobs? A business cycle analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 99-122.
    13. Tito Boeri & Herbert Bruecker, 2011. "Short-time work benefits revisited: some lessons from the Great Recession [‘Reversed roles? Wage and employment effects of the current crisis’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(68), pages 697-765.
    14. Puhani, Patrick A., 2012. "The treatment effect, the cross difference, and the interaction term in nonlinear “difference-in-differences” models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 85-87.
    15. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Difference-in-Differences Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(2), pages 431-497, March.
    16. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    17. Alexander Hijzen & Sebastien Martin, 2013. "The role of short-time work schemes during the global financial crisis1 and early recovery: a cross-country analysis," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, December.
    18. David H. Greenberg & Charles Michalopoulos & Philip K. Robins, 2003. "A Meta-Analysis of Government-Sponsored Training Programs," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 57(1), pages 31-53, October.
    19. Scholz, Theresa, 2012. "Employers' selection behavior during short-time work," IAB-Discussion Paper 201218, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    20. Kruppe, Thomas & Scholz, Theresa, 2014. "Labour hoarding in Germany : employment effects of short-time work during the crises," IAB-Discussion Paper 201417, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    21. José María Arranz & Carlos García Serrano, 2011. "Are the MCVL tax data useful? Ideas for mining," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 199(4), pages 151-186, December.
    22. Andreas Crimmann & Frank Wießner & Lutz Bellmann, 2012. "Resisting the crisis: short‐time work in Germany," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(8), pages 877-900, November.
    23. Alexander Hijzen & Danielle Venn, 2011. "The Role of Short-Time Work Schemes during the 2008-09 Recession," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 115, OECD Publishing.
    24. Gonthier, Pauline, 2012. "Why Was Short-Time Work Unattractive During the Crisis?," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt5dn0w9b1, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mario Izquierdo & Sergio Puente & Iván Auciello, 2022. "How did the duration of Spain’s furlough schemes affect their efficacy?," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 4/2022.
    2. Arranz, José M. & García-Serrano, Carlos, 2020. "Does unemployment benefit duration affect inflows into unemployment? The impact of a law change for older workers," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitris Pavlopoulos & Katja Chkalova, 2022. "Short-time work: A bridge to employment security or a springboard to unemployment?," Economic and Industrial Democracy, Department of Economic History, Uppsala University, Sweden, vol. 43(1), pages 168-197, February.
    2. Marlon R. Tracey & Solomon W. Polachek, 2020. "Heterogeneous Layoff Effects of the US Short‐Time Compensation Program," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 34(4), pages 399-426, December.
    3. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2ju03cb3kc9a3986bsibii70hd is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Britta Gehrke & Brigitte Hochmuth, 2021. "Counteracting Unemployment in Crises: Non‐Linear Effects of Short‐Time Work Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 144-183, January.
    5. Cahuc, Pierre & Kramarz, Francis & Nevoux, Sandra, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Short-Time Work: From Saved Jobs to Windfall Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 16168, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Brey, Björn & Hertweck, Matthias S., 2020. "The Extension Of Short-Time Work Schemes During The Great Recession: A Story Of Success?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 360-402, March.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2ju03cb3kc9a3986bsibii70hd is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Julio G. Fournier Gabela & Luis Sarmiento, 2020. "Kurzarbeit and Natural Disasters: How Effective Are Short-Time Working Allowances in Avoiding Unemployment?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1909, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Becker, Sebastian, 2016. "Selection into Short-Time Work and Labor Market Outcomes after the Great Recession - Empirical Evidence using German Micro-Level Data," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145889, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Oana CALAVREZO & Lewis HOUNKPEVI & Florence JOURNEAU & Marie-Hélène NGUYEN, 2020. "L’utilisation de l’activité partielle durant la crise de la Covid-19 : une analyse empirique entre mars et mai 2020," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2804, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    11. Pierre Cahuc & Francis Kramarz & Sandra Nevoux, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Short-Time Work: From Saved Jobs to Windfall Effects," SciencePo Working papers hal-03602410, HAL.
    12. Reamonn Lydon & Thomas Y. Mathä & Stephen Millard, 2019. "Short-time work in the Great Recession: firm-level evidence from 20 EU countries," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.
    13. Cahuc, Pierre & Nevoux, Sandra, 2017. "Inefficient Short-Time Work," IZA Discussion Papers 11010, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Kruppe, Thomas & Scholz, Theresa, 2014. "Labour hoarding in Germany : employment effects of short-time work during the crises," IAB-Discussion Paper 201417, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    15. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/68ufmnnh3j9vmblf03huqt18qe is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/68ufmnnh3j9vmblf03huqt18qe is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Braun, Helge & Brügemann, Björn, 2014. "Welfare Effects of Short-Time Compensation," IZA Discussion Papers 8597, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Garcia-Clemente, Javier & Rubino, Nicola & Congregado, Emilio, 2022. "Evaluating the effects of short and medium-term temporary work reduction schemes: the case of Spain’s ERTEs during the COVID-19 outbreak," MPRA Paper 114504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Daniel Kopp & Michael Siegenthaler, 2021. "Short-Time Work and Unemployment in and after the Great Recession [Does Employment Protection Inhibit Labor Market Flexibility? Lessons from Germany, France, and Belgium]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 2283-2321.
    20. Pierre Cahuc, 2014. "Short-time work compensations and employment," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-11, May.
    21. Pierre Cahuc & Francis Kramarz & Sandra Nevoux, 2018. "When Short-Time Work Works," SciencePo Working papers hal-03393127, HAL.
    22. Rodger Barros Antunes Campos & Gustavo Pereira Serra, 2020. "The decision on unconstitutionality of earmarking and its impact on the housing access: Evidence from São Paulo State, Brazil," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 25-42, February.
    23. Balleer, Almut & Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2016. "Does short-time work save jobs? A business cycle analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 99-122.
    24. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L. & Dueñas Fernández , Diego & Llorente Heras, Raquel, 2024. "Okun’s Law: The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the temporary layoffs procedures (ERTEs) on Spanish regions," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 59, pages 105-125.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:brjirl:v:56:y:2018:i:1:p:189-222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.