IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/1205.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Okun's Law: The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the temporary layoffs procedures (ERTE) on Spanish regions

Author

Listed:
  • Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina
  • Martín-Román, Ángel L.
  • Dueñas Fernández, Diego
  • Llorente Heras, Raquel

Abstract

Official statistics indicated a break in Okun's law in all the Spanish regions due to the COVID-19 pandemic; however, herein, evidence of the validity of the law is shown. The temporary layoff procedures (ERTE) allowed many workers to maintain their jobs. From the productive point of view, the law remained in effect in the regions, showing a strong relationship between idle labour resources and economic activity, and from the social point of view, the apparent breakdown of the law can be interpreted as the implementation of a policy that mitigated the dramatic impact of the economic crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L. & Dueñas Fernández, Diego & Llorente Heras, Raquel, 2022. "Okun's Law: The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the temporary layoffs procedures (ERTE) on Spanish regions," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1205, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/266475/1/GLO-DP-1205.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cahuc, Pierre & Kramarz, Francis & Nevoux, Sandra, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Short-Time Work: From Saved Jobs to Windfall Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 16168, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Laurence Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, 2017. "Okun's Law: Fit at 50?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1413-1441, October.
    3. Tito Boeri & Herbert Bruecker, 2011. "Short-time work benefits revisited: some lessons from the Great Recession [‘Reversed roles? Wage and employment effects of the current crisis’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(68), pages 697-765.
    4. Dimitris Pavlopoulos & Katja Chkalova, 2022. "Short-time work: A bridge to employment security or a springboard to unemployment?," Economic and Industrial Democracy, Department of Economic History, Uppsala University, Sweden, vol. 43(1), pages 168-197, February.
    5. Miquel Clar-Lopez & Jordi López-Tamayo & Raúl Ramos, 2014. "Unemployment forecasts, time varying coefficient models and the Okun’s law in Spanish regions," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 247-262.
    6. Victoria Osuna & J. García-Pérez, 2015. "On the Effectiveness of Short-time Work Schemes in Dual Labor Markets," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 323-351, September.
    7. FitzRoy, Felix R & Hart, Robert A, 1985. "Hours, Layoffs and Unemployment Insurance Funding: Theory and Practice in an International Perspective," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 700-713, September.
    8. Juan J. Dolado & Florentino Felgueroso & Juan F. Jimeno, 2021. "Past, present and future of the Spanish labour market: when the pandemic meets the megatrends," Applied Economic Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(85), pages 21-41, January.
    9. Alexander Hijzen & Sebastien Martin, 2013. "The role of short-time work schemes during the global financial crisis1 and early recovery: a cross-country analysis," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, December.
    10. Katharine G. Abraham & Susan N. Houseman, 1994. "Does Employment Protection Inhibit Labor Market Flexibility? Lessons from Germany, France, and Belgium," NBER Chapters, in: Social Protection versus Economic Flexibility: Is There a Trade-Off?, pages 59-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Marinko Skare & Sanja Blazevic Buric, 2020. "Testing Okun’s law. Theoretical and empirical considerations using fractional integration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 459-474, January.
    12. Cahuc, Pierre & Carcillo, Stéphane, 2011. "Is Short-Time Work a Good Method to Keep Unemployment Down?," IZA Discussion Papers 5430, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Roger Perman & Christophe Tavera, 2005. "A cross-country analysis of the Okun's Law coefficient convergence in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2501-2513.
    14. Villaverde, José & Maza, Adolfo, 2009. "The robustness of Okun's law in Spain, 1980-2004: Regional evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 289-297.
    15. Bande, Roberto & Martín-Román, Ángel, 2018. "Regional differences in the Okun’s Relationship: New Evidence for Spain (1980-2015)," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 41, pages 137-165.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2ju03cb3kc9a3986bsibii70hd is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Alexander Hijzen & Danielle Venn, 2011. "The Role of Short-Time Work Schemes during the 2008-09 Recession," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 115, OECD Publishing.
    18. Juranek, Steffen & Paetzold, Jörg & Winner, Hannes & Zoutman, Floris T., 2020. "Labor Market Effects of COVID-19 in Sweden and its Neighbors: Evidence from Novel Administrative Data," Discussion Papers 2020/8, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    19. Burdett, Kenneth & Wright, Randall, 1989. "Unemployment Insurance and Short-Time Compensation: The Effects on Layoffs, Hours per Worker, and Wages," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1479-1496, December.
    20. Van Audenrode, Marc A, 1994. "Short-Time Compensation: Job Security, and Employment Contracts: Evidence from Selected OECD Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 76-102, February.
    21. Victoria Osuna & José Ignacio García Pérez, 2021. "Temporary layoffs, short-time work and COVID-19: the case of a dual labour market," Applied Economic Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(90), pages 248-262, December.
    22. Laurence Ball & Davide Furceri & Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, 2019. "Does One Law Fit All? Cross-Country Evidence on Okun’s Law," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 841-874, November.
    23. Mario Izquierdo & Sergio Puente & Ana Regil, 2021. "Furlough schemes in the COVID-19 crisis: an initial analysis of furloughed employees resuming work," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2/2021.
    24. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Time‐Varying Relationship between Unemployment and Output: What shapes it?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 605-630, November.
    25. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2019. "Self-employment and the Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 253-265.
    26. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:26:y:2011:i:68:p:697-765 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garcia-Clemente, J. & Rubino, N. & Congregado, E., 2023. "Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain's scheme during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 57, pages 1-17.
    2. Garcia-Clemente, Javier & Rubino, Nicola & Congregado, Emilio, 2022. "Evaluating the effects of short and medium-term temporary work reduction schemes: the case of Spain’s ERTEs during the COVID-19 outbreak," MPRA Paper 114504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Victoria Osuna & José Ignacio García Pérez, 2021. "Temporary layoffs, short-time work and COVID-19: the case of a dual labour market," Applied Economic Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(90), pages 248-262, December.
    4. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Braun, Helge & Brügemann, Björn, 2014. "Welfare Effects of Short-Time Compensation," IZA Discussion Papers 8597, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Reamonn Lydon & Thomas Y. Mathä & Stephen Millard, 2019. "Short-time work in the Great Recession: firm-level evidence from 20 EU countries," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.
    7. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2ju03cb3kc9a3986bsibii70hd is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Victoria Osuna & J. García-Pérez, 2015. "On the Effectiveness of Short-time Work Schemes in Dual Labor Markets," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 323-351, September.
    9. Julio G. Fournier Gabela & Luis Sarmiento, 2020. "Kurzarbeit and Natural Disasters: How Effective Are Short-Time Working Allowances in Avoiding Unemployment?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1909, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Cahuc, Pierre & Kramarz, Francis & Nevoux, Sandra, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Short-Time Work: From Saved Jobs to Windfall Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 16168, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Marlon R. Tracey & Solomon W. Polachek, 2020. "Heterogeneous Layoff Effects of the US Short‐Time Compensation Program," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 34(4), pages 399-426, December.
    12. Pierre Cahuc, 2019. "Short-time work compensation schemes and employment," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-11, May.
    13. Balleer, Almut & Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2016. "Does short-time work save jobs? A business cycle analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 99-122.
    14. Britta Gehrke & Brigitte Hochmuth, 2021. "Counteracting Unemployment in Crises: Non‐Linear Effects of Short‐Time Work Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 144-183, January.
    15. Pierre Cahuc, 2014. "Short-time work compensations and employment," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-11, May.
    16. Alexander Hijzen & Sebastien Martin, 2013. "The role of short-time work schemes during the global financial crisis1 and early recovery: a cross-country analysis," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, December.
    17. Dimitris Pavlopoulos & Katja Chkalova, 2022. "Short-time work: A bridge to employment security or a springboard to unemployment?," Economic and Industrial Democracy, Department of Economic History, Uppsala University, Sweden, vol. 43(1), pages 168-197, February.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2ju03cb3kc9a3986bsibii70hd is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Bermudez, Natalia & Dejemeppe, Muriel & Tarullo, Giulia, 2023. "Theory and Empirics of Short-Time Work: A Review," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1348, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    20. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/68ufmnnh3j9vmblf03huqt18qe is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Brey, Björn & Hertweck, Matthias S., 2020. "The Extension Of Short-Time Work Schemes During The Great Recession: A Story Of Success?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 360-402, March.
    22. Tito Boeri & Pierre Cahuc, 2022. "Labor Market Insurance Policies in the XXI Century," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03878719, HAL.
    23. Cahuc, Pierre & Nevoux, Sandra, 2017. "Inefficient Short-Time Work," IZA Discussion Papers 11010, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Okun's law; ERTE; expanded unemployment rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.