IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ajarec/v62y2018i3p327-351.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of water scarcity on food, bioenergy and deforestation

Author

Listed:
  • Niven Winchester
  • Kirby Ledvina
  • Kenneth Strzepek
  • John M. Reilly

Abstract

We evaluate the impact of explicitly representing irrigated land and water scarcity in an economy‐wide model with and without a global carbon policy. The analysis develops supply functions of irrigable land from a water resource model for 282 river basins and applies them within a global economy‐wide model. The analysis reveals two key findings. First, explicitly representing irrigated land has a small impact on global food, bioenergy and deforestation outcomes. This is because this modification allows irrigated and rainfed land to expand in different proportions, which counters the effect of rising marginal costs for the expansion of irrigated land. Second, changes in water availability have small impacts on global food prices, bioenergy production, land use change and the overall economy, even with large‐scale (c. 150 exajoules) bioenergy production, due in part to endogenous irrigation and storage responses. However, representing water scarcity and changes in water availability can be important regionally, with relatively arid areas and/or areas with rapidly growing populations fully exhausting our estimated maximum irrigation capacity that allows for improved irrigation efficiency, lining of canals to limit water loss, and expanding storage to fully capture average annual water flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Niven Winchester & Kirby Ledvina & Kenneth Strzepek & John M. Reilly, 2018. "The impact of water scarcity on food, bioenergy and deforestation," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(3), pages 327-351, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:62:y:2018:i:3:p:327-351
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8489.12257
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12257
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8489.12257?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angel Aguiar & Badri Narayanan & Robert McDougall, 2016. "An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 181-208, June.
    2. Gurgel Angelo & Reilly John M & Paltsev Sergey, 2007. "Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-36, December.
    3. Kirby Ledvina & Niven Winchester & Kenneth Strzepek & John M. Reilly, 2018. "New Data for Representing Irrigated Agriculture in Economy-Wide Models," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 3(1), pages 122-155, June.
    4. Iman Haqiqi & Farzad Taheripour & Jing Liu & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2016. "Introducing Irrigation Water into GTAP Data Base Version 9," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(2), pages 116-155, December.
    5. Frank van Tongeren & Robert Koopman & Stephen Karingi & John Reilly & Joseph Francois, 2021. "Back to the Future: A 25-Year Retrospective on GTAP and the Shaping of a New Agenda," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 3, pages 41-93, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1299-1324, November.
    7. Winchester, Niven & Reilly, John M., 2015. "The feasibility, costs, and environmental implications of large-scale biomass energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 188-203.
    8. Dinar, Ariel, 2014. "Water and Economy-Wide Policy Interventions," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 10(2), pages 85-165, July.
    9. Angelo Gurgel & Tim Cronin & John Reilly & Sergey Paltsev & David Kicklighter & Jerry Melillo, 2011. "Food, Fuel, Forests, and the Pricing of Ecosystem Services," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(2), pages 342-348.
    10. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Winchester, Niven & Ledvina, Kirby, 2017. "The impact of oil prices on bioenergy, emissions and land use," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 219-227.
    2. Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.
    3. Winchester, Niven & Ledvina, Kirby & Strzepek, Kenneth & Reilly, John, 2016. "The Impact of Water Scarcity on Food, Deforestation and Bioenergy," Conference papers 332736, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Winchester, Niven & Reilly, John M., 2020. "The economic and emissions benefits of engineered wood products in a low-carbon future," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Winchester, Niven & Reilly, John M., 2015. "The feasibility, costs, and environmental implications of large-scale biomass energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 188-203.
    6. Arun Singh & Niven Winchester & Valerie J. Karplus, 2019. "Evaluating India’S Climate Targets: The Implications Of Economy-Wide And Sector-Specific Policies," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(03), pages 1-29, August.
    7. Sergey Paltsev, 2012. "Implications of Alternative Mitigation Policies on World Prices for Fossil Fuels and Agricultural Products," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-065, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Gurgel, Angelo & Chen, Y.-H. Henry & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John, 2016. "Linking Natural Resources to the CGE framework: the case of Land Use Changes in the EPPA Model," Conference papers 332705, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Paltsev, Sergey, 2012. "Implications of Alternative Mitigation Policies on World Prices for Fossil Fuels and Agricultural Products," WIDER Working Paper Series 065, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. John Reilly & Sergey Paltsev & Ken Strzepek & Noelle Selin & Yongxia Cai & Kyung-Min Nam & Erwan Monier & Stephanie Dutkiewicz & Jeffery Scott & Mort Webster & Andrei Sokolov, 2013. "Valuing climate impacts in integrated assessment models: the MIT IGSM," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 561-573, April.
    12. Gurgel, Angelo C. & Paltsev, Sergey & Breviglieri, Gustavo Velloso, 2019. "The impacts of the Brazilian NDC and their contribution to the Paris agreement on climate change," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 395-412, August.
    13. Christoph Böhringer & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2017. "Paris after Trump: An Inconvenient Insight," CESifo Working Paper Series 6531, CESifo.
    14. Frédéric Babonneau & Ahmed Badran & Maroua Benlahrech & Alain Haurie & Maxime Schenckery & Marc Vielle, 2021. "Economic assessment of the development of CO2 direct reduction technologies in long-term climate strategies of the Gulf countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-18, April.
    15. Bruno Lanz & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2016. "GTAPINGAMS, version 9: Multiregional and small open economy models with alternative demand systems," IRENE Working Papers 16-08, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Niven Winchester, 2018. "Can tariffs be used to enforce Paris climate commitments?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2650-2668, October.
    17. Kat, Bora & Paltsev, Sergey & Yuan, Mei, 2018. "Turkish energy sector development and the Paris Agreement goals: A CGE model assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 84-96.
    18. Landis, Florian & Fredriksson, Gustav & Rausch, Sebastian, 2021. "Between- and within-country distributional impacts from harmonizing carbon prices in the EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    19. Osman, Rehab & Ferrari, Emanuele & McDonald, Scott, 2019. "Is improving Nile water quality ‘fruitful’?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 20-31.
    20. Rausch, Sebastian & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2023. "Green technology policies versus carbon pricing: An intergenerational perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    21. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:62:y:2018:i:3:p:327-351. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.