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Valuing climate impacts in integrated assessment models: the MIT IGSM

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Author Info

  • John Reilly

    ()

  • Sergey Paltsev
  • Ken Strzepek
  • Noelle Selin
  • Yongxia Cai
  • Kyung-Min Nam
  • Erwan Monier
  • Stephanie Dutkiewicz
  • Jeffery Scott
  • Mort Webster
  • Andrei Sokolov

Abstract

We discuss a strategy for investigating the impacts of climate change on Earth’s physical, biological and human resources and links to their socio-economic consequences. As examples, we consider effects on agriculture and human health. Progress requires a careful understanding of the chain of physical changes—global and regional temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification, polar ice melting. We relate those changes to other physical and biological variables that help people understand risks to factors relevant to their daily lives—crop yield, food prices, premature death, flooding or drought events, land use change. Finally, we investigate how societies may adapt, or not, to these changes and how the combination of measures to adapt or to live with losses will affect the economy. Valuation and assessment of market impacts can play an important role, but we must recognize the limits of efforts to value impacts where deep uncertainty does not allow a description of the causal chain of effects that can be described, much less assigned a likelihood. A mixed approach of valuing impacts, evaluating physical and biological effects, and working to better describe uncertainties in the earth system can contribute to the social dialogue needed to achieve consensus on the level and type of mitigation and adaptation actions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-012-0635-x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Climatic Change.

Volume (Year): 117 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 561-573

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Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:117:y:2013:i:3:p:561-573

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Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

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  1. Hughes, Gordon & Chinowsky, Paul & Strzepek, Ken, 2010. "The costs of adaptation to climate change for water infrastructure in OECD countries," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 142-153, September.
  2. Gurgel Angelo & Reilly John M & Paltsev Sergey, 2007. "Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-36, December.
  3. Mort Webster & Andrei Sokolov & John Reilly & Chris Forest & Sergey Paltsev & Adam Schlosser & Chien Wang & David Kicklighter & Marcus Sarofim & Jerry Melillo & Ronald Prinn & Henry Jacoby, 2012. "Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 569-583, June.
  4. Martin L. Weitzman, 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
  5. Angelo Gurgel & Tim Cronin & John Reilly & Sergey Paltsev & David Kicklighter & Jerry Melillo, 2011. "Food, Fuel, Forests, and the Pricing of Ecosystem Services," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(2), pages 342-348.
  6. Ronald Prinn & Sergey Paltsev & Andrei Sokolov & Marcus Sarofim & John Reilly & Henry Jacoby, 2011. "Scenarios with MIT integrated global systems model: significant global warming regardless of different approaches," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 515-537, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Kopp, Robert E. & Mignone, Bryan K., 2012. "The US government's social cost of carbon estimates after their first two years: Pathways for improvement," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6(15), pages 1-41.
  2. CISCAR MARTINEZ Juan Carlos & FEYEN Luc & SORIA RAMIREZ Antonio & LAVALLE Carlo & PERRY Miles & RAES Frank & NEMRY Francoise & DEMIREL Hande & RÓZSAI Máté & DOSIO Alessandro & DONATELLI Marcello & , 2014. "Climate Impacts in Europe. The JRC PESETA II Project," JRC-IPTS Working Papers JRC87011, Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies, Joint Research Centre.
    • Ciscar, Juan-Carlos & Feyen, Luc & Soria, Antonio & Lavalle, Carlo & Raes, Frank & Perry, Miles & Nemry, Françoise & Demirel, Hande & Rozsai, Máté & Dosio, Alessandro & Donatelli, Marcello & Srivas, 2014. "Climate Impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II Project," MPRA Paper 55725, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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