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How Do Behavioral Assumptions Affect Structural Inference? Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

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Author Info
Houser, Daniel
Winter, Joachim

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Abstract

We use laboratory experiments to investigate the effect that assuming rational expectations has on structural inference in a dynamic discrete decision problem. Our design induces preferences up to the subjective rate of time preference, leaving unrestricted both this parameter and subjects' decision rules. We estimate subjects' discount rates under the assumption that all subjects use the rational expectations decision rule, and under weaker behavioral assumptions that allow decision rule heterogeneity. We find that certain sophisticated heuristics fit subjects' decisions statistically significantly better than rational expectations. However, the rational expectations assumption does not distort inferences about the cross-sectional discount rate distribution.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 64-79
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:22:y:2004:i:1:p:64-79

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Anderlini, Luca & Canning, David, 2001. "Structural Stability Implies Robustness to Bounded Rationality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 395-422, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cox, James C & Oaxaca, Ronald L, 1999. "Can Supply and Demand Parameters Be Recovered from Data Generated by Market Institutions?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 285-97, July.
  3. Hey, John D., 1982. "Search for rules for search," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 65-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Martin Lettau & Harald Uhlig, 1999. "Rules of Thumb versus Dynamic Programming," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 148-174, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Krusell, Per & Smith, Anthony Jr., 1996. "Rules of thumb in macroeconomic equilibrium A quantitative analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 527-558, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Houser, Daniel, 2003. "Bayesian analysis of a dynamic stochastic model of labor supply and saving," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 289-335, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ellison, Glenn & Fudenberg, Drew, 1993. "Rules of Thumb for Social Learning," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 612-43, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Hey, John D., 1987. "Still searching," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 137-144, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1988. "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 91-118, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. John T. Warner & Saul Pleeter, 2001. "The Personal Discount Rate: Evidence from Military Downsizing Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 33-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Samwick, Andrew A., 1998. "Discount rate heterogeneity and social security reform," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 117-146, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Schunk, Daniel & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "The Relationship Between Risk Attitudes and Heuristics in Search Tasks: A Laboratory Experiment," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-23, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Schunk, Daniel, 2005. "Search behaviour with reference point preferences:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-12, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rothlauf, Franz & Schunk, Daniel & Pfeiffer, Jella, 2005. "Classification of Human Decision Behavior: Finding," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-04, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  4. Daniel Houser & Kevin McCabe & Michael Keane & Antoine Bechara, 2003. "Heuristics Used By Humans With Prefrontal Cortex Damage: Toward An Empirical Model Of Phineas Gage," Experimental 0308002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Franz Rothlauf & Daniel Schunk & Jella Pfeiffer, 2005. "Classification of Human Decision Behavior: Finding Modular Decision Rules with Genetic Algorithms," MEA discussion paper series 05079, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Daniel Houser & Robert Kurzban, 2003. "Conditional cooperation and group dynamics: Experimental evidence from a sequential public goods game," Experimental 0307001, EconWPA, revised 21 Jan 2005. [Downloadable!]
  7. Daniel Houser & Michael Keane & Kevin McCabe, 2002. "Behavior in a dynamic decision problem: An analysis of experimental evidence using a bayesian type classification algorithm," Experimental 0211001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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