Inflation expectation and implicit inflation: does market research provide accurate measures?
AbstractIn recent years bonds indexed to inflation rates have experienced a tremendous growth in trading volumes. These securities have become an important tool for the diversification of investors' portfolios, to liability management and especially to gauge the expectations of monetary authorities. In this environment, this study contributes as it presents an amended methodology to estimate the inflation risk premium and in applying different methodologies in the Brazilian market. The results indicate that implicit inflation measures with or without adjustment of the inflation risk premium return the smallest forecast errors in relation to the IPCA of measurement period.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Fucape Business School in its journal Brazilian Business Review.
Volume (Year): 8 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Fucape Business School Brazilian Business Review Av. Fernando Ferrari, 1358, Boa Vista CEP 29075-505 Vitória-ES
Phone: +55 27 4009-4423
Fax: +55 27 4009-4422
Web page: http://www.bbronline.com.br/
More information through EDIRC
Term structure; inflation expectations; inflation risk premium.;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Caio Almeida & Romeu Gomes & André Leite & José Vicente, 2007.
"Does Curvature Enhance Forecasting?,"
Working Papers Series
155, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Caio Almeida & Romeu Gomes & André Leite & Axel Simonsen & José Vicente, 2009. "Does Curvature Enhance Forecasting?," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(08), pages 1171-1196.
- Felipe Pinheiro & Caio Almeida & José Vicente, 2007. "Um Modelo de Fatores Latentes com Variáveis Macroeconômicas para a Curva de Cupom Cambial," Working Papers Series 148, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Woodward, G Thomas, 1990. "The Real Thing: A Dynamic Profile of the Term Structure of Real Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations in the United Kingdom, 1982-89," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 373-98, July.
- J. Benson Durham, 2006. "An estimate of the inflation risk premium using a three-factor affine term structure model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Marcos S. Matsumura & Ajax R. B. Moreira, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Brazilian Yield Curve With no Arbitrage Models," Discussion Papers 1210, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
- Christensen, Ian & Frédéric Dion & Christopher Reid, 2004. "Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate," Working Papers 04-43, Bank of Canada.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010.
"Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, 09.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Working Paper Series 2008-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Francis Breedon & Jag Chadha, 1997. "The Information Content of the Inflation Term Structure," Bank of England working papers 75, Bank of England.
- Alexandre Lowenkron & Marcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 2007. "Monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium: a model with application to Brazilian data," Textos para discussÃ£o 543, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sarah Lasso).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.