Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate
AbstractAccording to the Fisher hypothesis, the gap between Canadian nominal and Real Return Bond yields (or break-even inflation rate) should be a good measure of inflation expectations. The authors find that this measure was higher, on average, and more variable than survey measures of inflation expectations between 1992 and 2003. They examine whether risk premiums and distortions embedded in this interest rate gap can account for these facts. Their results indicate that distortions were likely an important reason for the high level and variation of this measure over much of the 1990s. There is little evidence that the distortions examined were as important between 2000 and 2003, but the high level of the break-even inflation rate in 2004 may be evidence of their return. Given the potential distortions, and the difficulty in identifying them, the authors conclude that it is premature to consider this measure a reliable gauge of monetary policy credibility. In addition, it is not as useful as competing tools for short- and medium-term inflation forecasting.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-43.
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
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Interest rates; Inflation and prices; Market structure and pricing;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-12-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2004-12-02 (Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2004-12-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2005-01-10 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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