Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate
AbstractAccording to the Fisher hypothesis, the gap between Canadian nominal and Real Return Bond yields (or break-even inflation rate) should be a good measure of inflation expectations. The authors find that this measure was higher, on average, and more variable than survey measures of inflation expectations between 1992 and 2003. They examine whether risk premiums and distortions embedded in this interest rate gap can account for these facts. Their results indicate that distortions were likely an important reason for the high level and variation of this measure over much of the 1990s. There is little evidence that the distortions examined were as important between 2000 and 2003, but the high level of the break-even inflation rate in 2004 may be evidence of their return. Given the potential distortions, and the difficulty in identifying them, the authors conclude that it is premature to consider this measure a reliable gauge of monetary policy credibility. In addition, it is not as useful as competing tools for short- and medium-term inflation forecasting.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-43.
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
Interest rates; Inflation and prices; Market structure and pricing;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-12-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2004-12-02 (Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2004-12-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2005-01-10 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2000.
"Inflation Forecast Uncertainty,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
384, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 09 Oct 2000.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003.
"The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2003-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Francis Breedon & Jag Chadha, 1997. "The Information Content of the Inflation Term Structure," Bank of England working papers 75, Bank of England.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996.
"A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 155-208
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 5587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1125, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Brian Sack, 2000. "Deriving inflation expectations from nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Crawford, A & Kasumovich, M, 1996. "Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?," Working Papers 96-09, Bank of Canada.
- Ben Craig, 2003. "Why are TIIS yields so high? The case of the missing inflation-risk premium," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Mar.
- David Barr & John Campbell, .
"Inflation, real interest rates and the bond market: a study of UK nominal and index-linked Government bond prices,"
CERF Discussion Paper Series
95-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Barr, David & Campbell, John, 1997. "Inflation, Real Interest Rates, and the Bond Market: A Study of UK Nominal and Index-Linked Government Bond Prices," Scholarly Articles 3163261, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- David G. Barr & John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Inflation, Real Interest Rates, and the Bond Market: A Study of UK Nominal and Index-Linked Government Bond Prices," NBER Working Papers 5821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joseph G. Haubrich & Ann M. Dombrosky, 1992. "Gilt by association: uncovering expected inflation," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jun.
- David Jamieson Bolder & Scott Gusba, 2002. "Exponentials, Polynomials, and Fourier Series: More Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada," Working Papers 02-29, Bank of Canada.
- Mayer, T., 1993.
"Indexed Bonds and Heterogenous Agents,"
93-07, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
- Martin D. D. Evans, 1998. "Real Rates, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 187-218, 02.
- William R. Emmons, 2000. "The information content of Treasury inflation-indexed securities," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 25-38.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Data," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1758, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Christopher Reid & Frédéric Dion & Ian Christensen, 2004. "Real Return Bonds: Monetary Policy Credibility and Short-Term Inflation Forecasting," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2004(Autumn), pages 15-26.
- Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
- Pu Shen & Jonathan Corning, 2001. "Can TIPS help identify long-term inflation expectations?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 61-87.
- Brian Sack & Robert Elsasser, 2004. "Treasury inflation-indexed debt: a review of the U.S. experience," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 47-63.
- Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007.
"Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective,"
Banco de Espaï¿½a Occasional Papers
0705, Banco de Espa�a.
- Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a Central Bank perspective," Occasional Paper Series 62, European Central Bank.
- Flávio de Freitas Val & Claudio Henrique da Silveira Barbedo & Marcelo Verdini Maia, 2011. "Inflation expectation and implicit inflation: does market research provide accurate measures?," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 8(3), pages 83-100, July.
- Cette, G. & De Jong, M., 2009.
"The Rocky Ride of Break-even-inflation rates,"
230, Banque de France.
- David J. Bolder & Grahame Johnson & Adam Metzler, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates," Working Papers 04-48, Bank of Canada.
- Duran, Murat & Gülşen, Eda, 2013. "Estimating inflation compensation for Turkey using yield curves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 592-601.
- Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada.
- Azoulay, Eddy & Brenner, Menachem & Landskroner, Yoram & Stein, Roy, 2014. "Inflation risk premium implied by options," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 90-102.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.