An estimate of the inflation risk premium using a three-factor affine term structure model
AbstractThis paper decomposes nominal Treasury yields into expected real rates, expected inflation rates, real risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums by separately calibrating a three-factor affine term structure model to the nominal Treasury and TIPS yield curves. Although this particular application seems to produce expected real short rates and inflation rates that are somewhat static, there are theoretical advantages to calibrating the model to nominal and real yields separately. Moreover, the estimates correlate positively with back-of-the-envelope measures of the inflation risk premium. With respect to the current environment, monetary policy uncertainty does not seem to have contributed to the apparent increase in the inflation risk premium since the beginning of 2006. Also, in purely nominal terms, the increase in term premiums thus far this year might be just as much a global as a domestic phenomenon, given that nominal term premiums have also increased in Germany and the United Kingdom.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2006-42.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-12-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-12-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2006-12-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-12-16 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
- Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. " Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-29, December.
- Don H. Kim & Jonathan H. Wright, 2005. "An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996.
"A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1125, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Zvi Bodie, 1979. "Inflation Risk and Capital Market Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 0373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Don H. Kim & Athanasios Orphanides, 2005.
"Term structure estimation with survey data on interest rate forecasts,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2005-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2012. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(01), pages 241-272, February.
- Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2005. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Don H. Kim, 2005. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 474, Society for Computational Economics.
- Kandel, Shmuel & Ofer, Aharon R & Sarig, Oded, 1996.
" Real Interest Rates and Inflation: An Ex-Ante Empirical Analysis,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 205-25, March.
- Shmuel Kandel & Aharon R. Ofer & Sarig & Oded, . "Real Interest Rates and Inflation: An Ex-Ante Empirical Analysis," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 02-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Shmuel Kandel & Aharon R. Ofer & Oded Sarig, . "Real Interest Rates and Inflation: An Ex-Ante Empirical Analysis," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 2-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Data," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1758, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Langetieg, Terence C, 1980. " A Multivariate Model of the Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 71-97, March.
- Joshua V. Rosenberg & Samuel Maurer, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-11.
- Flávio de Freitas Val & Claudio Henrique da Silveira Barbedo & Marcelo Verdini Maia, 2011. "Inflation expectation and implicit inflation: does market research provide accurate measures?," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 8(3), pages 83-100, July.
- J. Benson Durham, 2007. "Implied interest rate skew, term premiums, and the "conundrum"," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christophe, Faugere, 2003. "A Required Yield Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Treasury Yield Determination," MPRA Paper 15579, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jun 2009.
- Tobias Adrian & Hao Wu, 2009. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Staff Reports 362, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Peter Hördahl, 2008. "The inflation risk premium in the term structure of interest rates," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
- Brière, Marie & Signori, Ombretta, 2009. "Do Inflation-Linked Bonds Still Diversify ?," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7741, Paris Dauphine University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.