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O Valor da Opção de Preservação do Parque dos Manguezais em Recife-PE: Uma Utilização do Método de Opções Reais

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Author Info

  • Guilherme Nunes Martins
  • Andrea Sales Soares de Azevedo Melo

Abstract

Neste trabalho o método de opções reais foi utilizado, em confronto com o do valor presente líquido, para avaliar se uma parte do Parque dos Manguezais, em Recife-PE, maior área de manguezal urbano do mundo, deve ou não ser utilizada para construção de uma rodovia, se sua totalidade deve ser vendida para o setor imobiliário, ou se o parque deve continuar sendo preservado. Foi assumido que o seu valor econômico total, estimado pelo método de valoração contingente, é incerto e segue um processo estocástico do movimento geométrico Browniano. A estimativa da volatilidade do valor do parque foi obtida através da análise de Monte Carlo. A decisão da sociedade de preservá-lo ou não foi modelada utilizando a ferramenta matemática da programação dinâmica. Os resultados permitiram concluir que as opções reais preenchem as lacunas do método de avaliação tradicional, que a preservação é uma escolha ótima e que, diante da imposição de construção da via Mangue, que esta seja de feita de forma suspensa, utilizando tecnologia poupadora de manguezal.

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File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/revista/vol8/vol8n4p75_95.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its journal Economia.

Volume (Year): 8 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 75_95

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Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:8:y:2007:i:4:75_95

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Postal: Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Tiradentes, 17 - Ingá Niterói, RJ 24210-510 Brazil
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Related research

Keywords: Parque dos Manguezais; Decisão sob Risco e Incerteza; Preservação;

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References

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  1. Octavio A. F. Tourinho., 1979. "The Option Value of Reserves of Natural Resources," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 94, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Margaret Forsyth, 2000. "On estimating the option value of preserving a wilderness area," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 413-434, May.
  3. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December.
  4. Reed, William J., 1993. "The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 45-69, August.
  5. Conrad, Jon M., 1997. "On the option value of old-growth forest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 97-102, August.
  6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  7. Chambers, Catherine M. & Chambers, Paul E. & Whitehead, John C., 1994. "Conservation organizations and the option value to preserve: an application to debt-for-nature swaps," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 135-143, February.
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