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Model Validation: An Overview with some Emphasis on Risk Models

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  • McCarl, Bruce A.

Abstract

Model validation is a topic which has a long history in the literature This article attempts to focus much of the previous discussion upon agricultural economics models. True model validation is not possible. Nevertheless, model validation exercises improve the relevancy of models and strengthen the theoretical oasis for modelling. Procedures are given for conducting validation exercises and for dealing with models which fail such exercises. In addition. comments appear on considerations involved with the validation of risk models.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12282
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 52 (1984)
Issue (Month): 03 (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:remaae:12282

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Related research

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty;

References

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  1. Rich, M.M., 1981. "The Policy Implications Of Possible New Zealand Wheat Pricing Schemes," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(03), December.
  2. Lee, B.M.S. & Bui-Lan, Anh, 1982. "Use Of Errors Of Prediction In Improving Forecast Accuracy: An Application To Wool In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 26(01), April.
  3. M. M. Rich, 1981. "The Policy Implications Of Possible New Zealand Wheat Pricing Schemes," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(3), pages 266-274, December.
  4. B.M.S. Lee & Anh Bui‐Lan, 1982. "Use Of Errors Of Prediction In Improving Forecast Accuracy: An Application To Wool In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 26(1), pages 49-62, 04.
  5. R.G. Reynolds & B. Gardiner, 1980. "Supply Response In The Australian Sheep Industry: A Case For Disaggregation And Dynamics," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 24(3), pages 196-209, December.
  6. Lars Brink & Bruce McCari, 1979. "The Adequacy of a Crop Planning Model for Determining Income, Income Change, and Crop Mix," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 27(3), pages 13-25, November.
  7. B. Curtis Eaves, 1971. "On Quadratic Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(11), pages 698-711, July.
  8. Reynolds, R.G. & Gardiner, B., 1980. "Supply Response In The Australian Sheep Industry: A Case For Disaggregation And Dynamics," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 24(03), December.
  9. McCarl, Bruce A. & Apland, Jeffrey, 1986. "Validation Of Linear Programming Models," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(02), December.
  10. Lins, David A. & Gabriel, Stephen C. & Sonka, Steven T., 1981. "An Analysis Of The Risk Aversion Of Farm Operators: An Asset Portfolio Approach," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 6(01), July.
  11. David W. Conrath, 1973. "From Statistical Decision Theory to Practice: Some Problems with the Transition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(8), pages 873-883, April.
  12. Thomas H. Naylor & J. M. Finger, 1967. "Verification of Computer Simulation Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(2), pages B92-B101, October.
  13. Renato G. Pieri & Karl D. Meilke & T. Gordon MacAulay, 1977. "North American-Japanese Pork Trade: An Application Of Quadratic Programming," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 25(2), pages 61-79, 07.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Musser, Wesley N. & Tew, Bernard V., 1984. "Use Of Biophysical Simulation In Production Economics," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(01), July.
  2. Quagrainie, Kwamena K. & Unterschultz, James R. & Jeffrey, Scott R., 2000. "The Impact Of Post-Farmgate Value-Adding On Western Canadian Agriculture," 2000 Annual Meeting, June 29-July 1, 2000, Vancouver, British Columbia 36379, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  3. Unterschultz, James R. & Jeffrey, Scott R. & Quagrainie, Kwamena K., 2000. "Value-Adding 20 Billion By 2005: Impact At The Alberta Farm Gate," Project Report Series 24049, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
  4. Pannell, David J. & Kingwell, Ross S. & Schilizzi, Steven, 1996. "Debugging Mathematical Programming Models: Principles and Practical Strategies," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(01), April.
  5. Mitchell, P. L., 1997. "Misuse of regression for empirical validation of models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 313-326, July.
  6. Boggess, William G. & Anaman, Kwabena A. & Hanson, Gregory D., 1985. "Importance, Causes, And Management Responses To Farm Risks: Evidence From Florida And Alabama," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(02), December.
  7. Bathgate, Andrew D. & Kingwell, Ross S. & O'Connell, Michael, 1999. "WOOL’S FUTURE in WESTERN AUSTRALIA and the R&D IMPLICATIONS: A Discussion Paper," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 123761, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  8. Dillon, Carl R., 1992. "Microeconomic Effects Of Reduced Yield Variability Cultivars Of Soybeans And Wheat," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), July.
  9. Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2004. "Global Analysis Of Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Assessing Model Validity," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20199, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  10. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.

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