The effects of climate change on the farm sector in the Western Cape
AbstractThis paper links two different methodologies to determine the effects of climate change on the Western Cape farm sector. First, it uses a general circulation model (GCM) to model future climate change in the Western Cape, particularly with respect to precipitation. Second, a sector mathematical programming model of the Western Cape farm sector is used to incorporate the predicted climate change, specifically rainfall, from the GCM to determine the effects on key variables of the regional farm economy. In summary, results indicate that future climate change will lead to lower precipitation, which implies that less water will be available to agriculture in the Western Cape. This will have a negative overall effect on the Western Cape farm economy. Both producer welfare and consumer welfare will decrease. Total employment in the farm sector will also decrease as producers switch to a more extensive production pattern. The total decline in welfare, therefore, will fall disproportionately on the poor.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA) in its journal Agrekon.
Volume (Year): 39 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dinar, A. & Mendelsohn, R. & Evenson, R. & Parikh, J. & Sanghi, A. & Kumar, K. & McKinsey, J. & Lonergen, S., 1998. "Measuring the Impact of CLimate Change on Indian Agriculture," Papers 402, World Bank - Technical Papers.
- B. Curtis Eaves, 1971. "On Quadratic Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(11), pages 698-711, July.
- Gbetibouo, Glwadys Aymone & Ringler, Claudia, 2009. "Mapping South African farming sector vulnerability to climate change and variability: A subnational assessment," IFPRI discussion papers 885, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Deressa, T. & Hassan, Rashid M. & Poonyth, Daneswar, 2005. "Measuring the impact of climate change on South African agriculture: The case of sugar-cane growing regions," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 44(4), December.
- Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay & Limin Wang & Marcus Wijnen, 2011. "Improving Household Survey Instruments for Understanding Agricultural Household Adaptation to Climate Change : Water Stress and Variability," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12764, The World Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.