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Maturities, Nonlinearities, and the International Transmission of Short-Term Interest Rates

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  • Mougoue, Mbodja
  • Noula, Armand Gilbert
  • Ajayi, Richard A.
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    Abstract

    This paper employs linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to re-examine the dynamic relation between daily Eurodollar and U.S. certificates of deposit rates during the July 16, 1973 to May 1, 2006 period. This study also conducts sub-period analysis based on the switching regression technique of Goldfield and Quant (GQSRT) (1972, 1973, and 1976). The main empirical findings are (1) Full-sample results show significant bi-directional linear causality from the CD and CD interest rates for one-month maturities and unidirectional linear causality between the EURO and CD interest rates for three-month and six-month maturities. Furthermore, full-sample results reveal for all three maturities. (2) Sub-sample results based on linear tests show a unidirectional causal relation from the CD rate to the EURO rate during the first sub-period for all three maturities. During the second sub-period, however, linear tests uncover a strong bi-directional relation between the CD and the Euro rates for all three maturities. The linear results for the third sub-period reveal mostly unidirectional causality from the EURO rate to the Cd for three maturities. (3) Finally, sub-sample nonlinear causality tests reveal mostly a unidirectional causality from the CD rate to the EURO rate for all three maturities during the first sub-sample, a strong significant bi-directional causality between the two rates for all three maturities during the second sub-period, and an uneven bi-directional causality between the two rates for all three maturities during the third sub-period. Overall, the results of this study show that the EURO rate’s role is becoming more prominent compared to that of the CD rate.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Review of Applied Economics in its journal Review of Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1-2 ()
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:reapec:50009

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    Web page: http://www.lincoln.ac.nz/story11874.html

    Related research

    Keywords: Eurodollar interest rates; CD interest rates; linear and nonlinear causality; financial market integration; Farm Management; International Relations/Trade; F3; C1;

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    References

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    1. Stephen Godfeld & Richard Quandt, 1973. "The Estimation Of Structural Shifts By Switching Regressions," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 2, number 4, pages 473-483 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mougoue, Mbodja & Wagster, John, 1997. "The Causality Effects of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy on U.S. and Eurodollar Interest Rates," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 821-44, November.
    3. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February.
    4. Pierce, David A. & Haugh, Larry D., 1977. "Causality in temporal systems : Characterization and a survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 265-293, May.
    5. Hall, Joyce A. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1989. "The Distribution of Futures Prices: A Test of the Stable Paretian and Mixture of Normals Hypotheses," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 105-116, March.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
    7. repec:att:wimass:9520 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Anoruo, Emmanuel & Ramchander, Sanjay & Thiewes, Harold F., 2002. "International linkage of interest rates: Evidence from the emerging economies of Asia," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 217-235.
    9. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-37, July.
    10. David A. Pierce & Larry D. Haugh, 1977. "Causality in temporal systems: characterizations and a survey," Special Studies Papers 87, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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