Risk And Returns Of Diversified Cropping Systems Under Nonnormal, Cross-, And Autocorrelated Commodity Price Structures
AbstractThis study analyzes the risks of diversified tropical cropping systems that combine cocoa, plantain, and tree-crop components in different proportions versus traditional monocultures. A technique for modeling the expected values, variances, and covariances of correlated time-series variables that are autocorrelated and nonnormal (right or left skewed and kurtotic) is applied to simulate commodity prices. The importance of using simulated cumulative density functions (cdf's) which reflect the most important characteristics of the stochastic behavior of prices for analyzing risk and returns of diversified agricultural systems is demonstrated. The analysis priovides evidence in favor of diversified cocoa-plantain-Cordia agroforestry system technologies versus the traditional monocultures.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
Volume (Year): 25 (2000)
Issue (Month): 02 (December)
Demand and Price Analysis;
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- Fleming, Euan & Milne, Mary, 2003. "Bioeconomic modelling of the production and export of cocoa for price policy analysis in Papua New Guinea," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 483-505, May.
- Ramirez, Octavio A. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Carpio, Carlos E. & Denning, Megan, 2004. "Issues and Strategies for Aggregate Supply Response Estimation for Policy Analyses," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(02), August.
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