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An Operational Approach for Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application to the No-Till Transition

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Author Info
Bharat M. Upadhyay
Douglas L. Young () (School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University)
Abstract

An Operational Approach for Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application to the No-Till Transition Abstract: Roy’s safety-first rule is used to provide measures popular with farmers of short and long term business risk associated with various no-till transition strategies over an investment horizon. The short run rule provided more sensitivity to inter-year financial risk than other commonly used criteria. Results revealed that speed of adoption influenced the probability of successful transition more than did the sequence of drill acquisition methods. Higher equity and larger farms had a greater chance of transition success. Slow acreage expansion with a custom or rental drill reduces risk until a no-till yield penalty is eliminated.

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File URL: http://www.ses.wsu.edu/PDFFiles/WorkingPapers/InvestRiskSESWorkPaper.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University in its series Working Papers with number 2005-1.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wsu:wpaper:young-2

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Related research
Keywords: repeated auction; Investment risk; Monte Carlo simulation; no-till; rent-purchase; risk; safety-first; technology adoption; transition strategy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J43 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Agricultural Labor Markets

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  1. Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robinson, Stephen D., 1993. "Tactical responses to seasonal conditions in whole-farm planning in Western Australia," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 211-226, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. repec:jaa:jagape:v:32:y:2000:i:2:p:299-315 is not listed on IDEAS
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-21.

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