An Operational Approach For Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application To The No-Till Transition
AbstractRoy’s safety-first rule is used to provide measures popular with farmers of short and long term business risk associated with various no-till transition strategies over an investment horizon. The short run rule provided more sensitivity to inter-year financial risk than other commonly used criteria. Results revealed that speed of adoption influenced the probability of successful transition more than did the sequence of drill acquisition methods. Higher equity and larger farms had a greater chance of transition success. Slow acreage expansion with a custom or rental drill reduces risk until a no-till yield penalty is eliminated.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Others with number 0412002.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 29 Dec 2004
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Investment risk; Monte Carlo simulation; no-till; rent- purchase; risk; safety-first; technology adoption; transition strategy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
- Q19 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Other
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