An Assessment of the Canadian Federal-Provincial Crop Production Insurance Program under Future Climate Change Scenarios in Ontario
AbstractResearch and observations indicate climate change has and will have an impact on On- tario eld crop production. Little research has done to forecast how climate change might in uence the Canadian Federal-Provincial Crop Insurance program, including its premium rates and reserve fund balances, in the future decades. This paper proposes using a mixture of two normal yield probability distribution model to model crop yield conditions under hypothetical climate change scenarios. Then superimposes Crop Insur- ance premium rate and reserve fund balance calculations onto the yield model to forecast their trends and uctuation situations in the future decades. We nd under the scenarios where climate change alters the probability of a lower yield year occurring and where climate change alters yield averages, both have more signi cant impacts on premium rates and reserve fund balances, compared to the scenarios where climate change alters yield variations. The results of this research will help Agricorp Ltd. identify the likely frequency and magnitude of both insurance premium rate uctuations and reserve fund balance uctuations under di erent climate change scenarios. Therefore the results can be used to help Agricorp Ltd. identify and forecast both premium rate uctuation risk and reserve fund liquidity risk.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. with number 151213.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; Production Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2013-07-05 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENV-2013-07-05 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2013-07-05 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nayak, Govindaray & Turvey, Calum G., 1999. "Empirical Issues In Crop Reinsurance Decisions," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21612, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Richard E. Just & Quinn Weninger, 1999.
"Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 287-304.
- Prabhat Barnwal & Koji Kotani, 2010.
"Impact of variation in climatic factors on crop yield: A case of rice crop in Andhra Pradesh, India,"
EMS_2010_17, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
- Barnwal, Prabhat & Kotani, Koji, 2013. "Climatic impacts across agricultural crop yield distributions: An application of quantile regression on rice crops in Andhra Pradesh, India," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 95-109.
- Barry K. Goodwin & Alan P. Ker, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Rating Group-Risk Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 139-153.
- Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
- Bruce A. McCarl & Xavier Villavicencio & Ximing Wu, 2008. "Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1241-1247.
- Jesse Tack & Ardian Harri & Keith Coble, 2012.
"More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1037-1054.
- Tack, Jesse B. & Harri, Ardian & Coble, Keith H., 2012. "More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 123330, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Alan P. Ker & Keith Coble, 2003. "Modeling Conditional Yield Densities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 291-304.
- Alan P. Ker & Barry K. Goodwin, 2000. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Insurance Rates Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 463-478.
- Gallagher, Paul W., 1987. "U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances," Staff General Research Papers 10779, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.