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Elicitation of Subjective Crop Yield PDF for DSS Implementation

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  • Clop-Gallart, M. Merce
  • Juarez-Rubio, Francisco
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    Abstract

    The aim of this research is to establish the persistence of annual crop yield point values subjective estimates, and the coherence and reliability of subjective crop yield probability density functions (PDF) elicited from a series of interviews carried out on a wide group of farmers, and then to determine whether they should be included or not in a decision support system (DSS). Three different elicitation techniques were used: a) The Two Step PDF estimation method b) Triangular distribution c) Beta distribution Although the results are noteworthy, further studies should be carried out to perfect the aforementioned techniques before crop yield PDF's are used in decision making processes.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24561
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark with number 24561.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae05:24561

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    Keywords: decision support systems; subjective crop yield PDF elicitation; two step PDF estimation method; triangular and beta distributions; Crop Production/Industries;

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    1. Norris, Patricia E. & Kramer, Randall A., 1990. "The Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities with Applications in Agricultural Economics," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58, December.
    2. Robert K. Kaufmann & Seth E. Snell, 1997. "A Biophysical Model of Corn Yield: Integrating Climatic and Social Determinants," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 178-190.
    3. Weninger, Quinn & Just, Richard E., 1999. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," Staff General Research Papers 5064, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Pease, James W., 1992. "A Comparison Of Subjective And Historical Crop Yield Probability Distributions," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(02), December.
    5. Barry K. Goodwin & Alan P. Ker, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Rating Group-Risk Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 139-153.
    6. Octavio A. Ram�rez, 1997. "Estimation and Use of a Multivariate Parametric Model for Simulating Heteroskedastic, Correlated, Nonnormal Random Variables: The Case of Corn Belt Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 191-205.
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