Elicitation of Subjective Crop Yield PDF for DSS Implementation
AbstractThe aim of this research is to establish the persistence of annual crop yield point values subjective estimates, and the coherence and reliability of subjective crop yield probability density functions (PDF) elicited from a series of interviews carried out on a wide group of farmers, and then to determine whether they should be included or not in a decision support system (DSS). Three different elicitation techniques were used: a) The Two Step PDF estimation method b) Triangular distribution c) Beta distribution Although the results are noteworthy, further studies should be carried out to perfect the aforementioned techniques before crop yield PDF's are used in decision making processes.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark with number 24561.
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
decision support systems; subjective crop yield PDF elicitation; two step PDF estimation method; triangular and beta distributions; Crop Production/Industries;
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Staff General Research Papers
5064, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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