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Subjective versus Objective Yield Distributions as Measures of Production Risk

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  • Joyotee Smith
  • Abraham M. Mandac

Abstract

Subjective probabilities of farmers with nonlinear utility are estimated from distributions elicited by applying a linear scoring rule with monetary payoffs. Estimated subjective distributions are compared to objective estimates of yield distributions in a risky rainfed rice-growing area in the Philippines. The results indicate that farmers are knowledgeable about mean nitrogen response, but seriously underestimate year-to-year variability in yield response to nitrogen. The implication is that accurately estimated objective distributions can be used to estimate upper limits of the effects of risk aversion on allocative decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Joyotee Smith & Abraham M. Mandac, 1995. "Subjective versus Objective Yield Distributions as Measures of Production Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(1), pages 152-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:77:y:1995:i:1:p:152-161.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1243897
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Hyunok & Blank, Steven C., 2004. "A Statistical Profile of Horticultural Crop Farm Industries in California," Research Reports 11931, University of California, Davis, Giannini Foundation.
    2. Caroline Roussy & Aude Ridier & Karim Chaïb, 2014. "Adoption d’innovations par les agriculteurs : rôle des perceptions et des préférences," Post-Print hal-01123427, HAL.
    3. Sudha Narayanan, 2012. "Safe gambles? Farmer perceptions of transactional certainty and risk-return tradeoffs in contract farming schemes in Southern India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    4. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2005. "Elicitation of Subjective Crop Yield PDF for DSS Implementation," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24561, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Marra, Michele & Pannell, David J. & Abadi Ghadim, Amir, 2003. "The economics of risk, uncertainty and learning in the adoption of new agricultural technologies: where are we on the learning curve?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 75(2-3), pages 215-234.
    6. Simone Cerroni, 2020. "Eliciting farmers’ subjective probabilities, risk, and uncertainty preferences using contextualized field experiments," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(5), pages 707-724, September.

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