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The Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities with Applications in Agricultural Economics

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  • Norris, Patricia E.
  • Kramer, Randall A.

Abstract

Probability judgements are important components of decision making under uncertainty. In particular, economic decisions can be aided by assuring more accurate assessment of probabilities and more realistic modelling of economic problems through the inclusion of subjective probabilities. The purpose of this paper is to describe the techniques which can be used to elicit subjective probabilities and the ways in which these techniques can be incorporated into agricultural economics research. The review draws from the statistics, psychology, management, operations research, meteorology and economics literature.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 58 (1990)
Issue (Month): (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:remaae:12253

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Keywords: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

References

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  1. William E. Griffiths & Jock R. Anderson & K.B. Hamal, 1987. "Subjective Distributions As Econometric Response Data," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(2), pages 127-141, 08.
  2. Anderson, Jock R. & Feder, Gershon, 2007. "Agricultural Extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier.
  3. Emilio M. Francisco & Jock R. Anderson, 1972. "Chance And Choice West Of The Darling," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(2), pages 82-93, 08.
  4. Joseph J. Moder & E. G. Rodgers, 1968. "Judgment Estimates of the Moments of Pert Type Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages B76-B83, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Langrock, Ines & Hurley, Terrance M., 2006. "Risk Preferences, Perceptions and Systematic Biases," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21343, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
  3. Sudha Narayanan, 2012. "Safe gambles? Farmer perceptions of transactional certainty and risk-return tradeoffs in contract farming schemes in Southern India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  4. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2005. "Elicitation of Subjective Crop Yield PDF for DSS Implementation," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24561, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Shaik, Saleem & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O. & Baquet, Alan E. & Patrick, George F., 2008. "Crop Revenue and Yield Insurance Demand: A Subjective Probability Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(03), December.
  6. Crosthwaite, Jim & McMahon, Ian, 1992. "Economic Issues and the Protection of Endangered Species," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 146435, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  7. Terrance Hurley & Jason Shogren, 2005. "An Experimental Comparison of Induced and Elicited Beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 169-188, January.
  8. Milne, Mary & Godden, David P. & Kennedy, John O.S. & Kambuou, Rosa N., 1999. "Evaluating the Benefits of Conserved Crop Germplasm in PNG," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 124091, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  9. Hardaker, J. Brian & Lien, Gudbrand, 2010. "Probabilities for decision analysis in agriculture and rural resource economics: The need for a paradigm change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(6), pages 345-350, July.

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