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More than Words: Leaders' Speech and Risky Behavior during a Pandemic

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  • Nicolás Ajzenman
  • Tiago Cavalcanti
  • Daniel Da Mata

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the anti-scientific rhetoric of modern populists can induce followers to engage in risky behavior. We gather electoral information, credit card expenses, and geo-localized mobile phone data for approximately 60 million devices in Brazil. After the president publicly dismissed the risks of the COVID-19 pandemic and challenged scientific recommendations, social distancing in pro-government localities declined. Consistently, credit card expenses increased immediately. Results are driven by localities with higher media penetration levels, active Twitter accounts, and a larger proportion of evangelical Christians, a critical electoral group.

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  • Nicolás Ajzenman & Tiago Cavalcanti & Daniel Da Mata, 2023. "More than Words: Leaders' Speech and Risky Behavior during a Pandemic," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 351-371, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:15:y:2023:i:3:p:351-71
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20210284
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion

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