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The Young, the Old, and the Government: Demographics and Fiscal Multipliers

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  • Henrique S. Basso
  • Omar Rachedi

Abstract

We document that government spending multipliers depend on the population age structure. Using the variation in military spending and birth rates across US states, we show that the local fiscal multiplier is 1.5 and increases with the population share of young people, implying multipliers of 1.1–1.9 in the interquartile range. A parsimonious life cycle open economy New Keynesian model with credit market imperfections and age-specific differences in labor supply and demand explains 87 percent of the relationship between local multipliers and demographics. The model implies that the US population aging between 1980 and 2015 caused a 38 percent drop in national government spending multipliers.

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  • Henrique S. Basso & Omar Rachedi, 2021. "The Young, the Old, and the Government: Demographics and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 110-141, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:13:y:2021:i:4:p:110-41
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190174
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    Cited by:

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    4. Ricardo Duque Gabriel, 2022. "The Credit Channel of Public Procurement," GEE Papers 0171, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Nov 2022.
    5. Pedro Brinca & Miguel H. Ferreira & Francesco Franco & Hans A. Holter & Laurence Malafry, 2021. "Fiscal Consolidation Programs And Income Inequality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(1), pages 405-460, February.
    6. Pedro Brinca & Hans Holter & Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Miguel Ferreira, 2019. "The Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 934, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Dantas Guimarães, Silvana & Ferreira Tiryaki, Gisele, 2020. "The impact of population aging on business cycles volatility: International evidence," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    8. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    9. Basso, Henrique S. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2021. "From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 833-847.
    10. Sami Alpanda & Hyunji Song & Sarah Zubairy, 2021. "Household Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 20210928-001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    11. Wei Dong & Geoffrey Dunbar & Christian Friedrich & Dmitry Matveev & Romanos Priftis & Lin Shao, 2021. "Complementarities Between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy—Literature Review," Discussion Papers 2021-4, Bank of Canada.
    12. Juan F. Jimeno, 2019. "Fewer babies and more robots: economic growth in a new era of demographic and technological changes," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 93-114, June.
    13. Moro, Alessio & Rachedi, Omar, 2018. "The Changing Structure of Government Spending," MPRA Paper 86577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "The Age for Austerity? Population Age Structure and Fiscal Multipliers," Trinity Economics Papers tep1621, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    15. Puonti, Päivi, 2023. "Effective Fiscal Policy in an Aging Economy: Evidence from a BVAR Analysis," ETLA Working Papers 110, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    16. Kim, Wongi, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of government transfer payments: Evidence from Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
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    18. Bernardino, Tiago, 2019. "Asset Liquidity and Fiscal Consolidation Programs," MPRA Paper 93903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Vaz de Castro, Afonso, 2022. "Risk Aversion and Recessive Impacts of Austerity," MPRA Paper 111875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Kopecky, Joseph, 2022. "The age for austerity? Population age structure and fiscal consolidation multipliers," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    21. Laure Simon, 2023. "Fiscal Stimulus and Skill Accumulation over the Life Cycle," Staff Working Papers 23-9, Bank of Canada.
    22. John V. Leahy & Aditi Thapar, 2019. "Demographic Effects on the Impact of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 26324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Bessho, Shun-ichiro, 2021. "Local fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    24. Waki, Yuichiro, 2022. "A cautionary note on linear aggregation in macroeconomic models under the RINCE preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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