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The role of surprise: Understanding overreaction and underreaction to unanticipated events using in-play soccer betting market

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Oliver Merz & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2019. "Does sentiment harm market efficiency? An empirical analysis using a betting exchange setting," Working Papers 381, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  2. Pawlowski, Tim & Rambaccussing, Dooruj & Ramirez, Philip & Reade, J. James & Rossi, Giambattista, 2024. "Exploring entertainment utility from football games," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 185-198.
  3. Michels, Rouven & Ötting, Marius & Langrock, Roland, 2023. "Bettors’ reaction to match dynamics: Evidence from in-game betting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1118-1127.
  4. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Are sports betting markets semistrong efficient? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 387, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  5. Goto, Shingo & Yamada, Toru, 2023. "What drives biased odds in sports betting markets: Bettors’ irrationality and the role of bookmakers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 252-270.
  6. Raphael Flepp & Oliver Merz & Egon Franck, 2024. "When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 414-429, January.
  7. Romain Gauriot & Lionel Page, 2026. "How Market Prices React to Information: Evidence from Binary Options Markets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 136(673), pages 163-183.
  8. Darwin Choi & Bige Kahraman & Abhiroop Mukherjee, 2016. "Learning about Mutual Fund Managers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(6), pages 2809-2860, December.
  9. Dave Cliff & James Hawkins & James Keen & Roberto Lau-Soto, 2021. "Implementing the BBE Agent-Based Model of a Sports-Betting Exchange," Papers 2108.02419, arXiv.org.
  10. Piccoli, Pedro & Chaudhury, Mo & Souza, Alceu, 2017. "How do stocks react to extreme market events? Evidence from Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 275-284.
  11. Luca De Angelis & J. James Reade, 2022. "Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-01, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
  12. Bizzozero, Paolo & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2018. "The effect of fast trading on price discovery and efficiency: Evidence from a betting exchange," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 126-143.
  13. Michael Ehrmann & David‐Jan Jansen, 2017. "The Pitch Rather Than the Pit: Investor Inattention, Trading Activity, and FIFA World Cup Matches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 807-821, June.
  14. David Winkelmann & Maya Vienken & Christian Deutscher & Roland Langrock, 2026. "Betting Against Integrity: Identifying Match-Fixing Through In-Play Market Dynamics," Papers 2605.30209, arXiv.org.
  15. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca & Singleton, Carl, 2022. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 282-299.
  16. Tao Xiong & Wenshu Lv & Guangcheng Fang & Weiyi Xia, 2025. "Do China's Agricultural Futures Overreact to U.S. Futures Markets Returns? Evidence From Soybean and Corn Futures," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 69(2), pages 453-470, April.
  17. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2020. "Betting Market Efficiency in the Presence of Unfamiliar Shocks: The Case of Ghost Games during the Covid-19 Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 8526, CESifo.
  18. Kai Fischer & W. Benedikt Schmal, 2025. "Pricing in response to new information: The case of betting markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 63(1), pages 236-264, January.
  19. Borgards, Oliver & Czudaj, Robert L. & Hoang, Thi Hong Van, 2021. "Price overreactions in the commodity futures market: An intraday analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic impact," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  20. Dave Cliff, 2021. "BBE: Simulating the Microstructural Dynamics of an In-Play Betting Exchange via Agent-Based Modelling," Papers 2105.08310, arXiv.org.
  21. David Winkelmann & Christian Deutscher, 2025. "Do Betting Markets Sense a Goal Coming? Evidence from the German Bundesliga," Papers 2505.21275, arXiv.org.
  22. Markus Jung & Mischa Seiter, 2021. "Towards a better understanding on mitigating algorithm aversion in forecasting: an experimental study," Journal of Management Control: Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 495-516, December.
  23. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2022. "Home advantage in professional soccer and betting market efficiency: The role of spectator crowds," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 294-316, May.
  24. Erica Juvercina Sobrinho & Rodrigo Fernandes Malaquias, 2025. "Government Announcements Through Harvest Reports, Extreme Market Conditions, and Commodity Price Volatility," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-16, September.
  25. Paolo Bizzozero & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2017. " Insider trading and price efficiency: Evidence from a betting exchange," Working Papers 368, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  26. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2022. "Gambling on Momentum," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-10, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    • Marius Otting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2022. "Gambling on Momentum," Papers 2211.06052, arXiv.org.
  27. Luca De Angelis & J. James Reade, 2023. "Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 391-418, June.
  28. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & J. James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2018. "Forecasting With Social Media: Evidence From Tweets On Soccer Matches," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1748-1763, July.
  29. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2023. "Gambling on Momentum in Contests," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-08, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
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