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Combination of long term and short term forecasts, with application to tourism demand forecasting

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Daud Ali Aser & Esin Firuzan, 2022. "Improving Forecast Accuracy Using Combined Forecasts with Regard to Structural Breaks and ARCH Innovations," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 1-25, December.
  2. Eden Xiaoying Jiao & Jason Li Chen, 2019. "Tourism forecasting: A review of methodological developments over the last decade," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 469-492, May.
  3. Xiaoqing Luo, 2026. "When simplicity fails: forecasting Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals in Macao during structural breaks with a hybrid economic-search model," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-31, March.
  4. Anna Maria Fiori & Ilaria Foroni, 2019. "Reservation Forecasting Models for Hospitality SMEs with a View to Enhance Their Economic Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, February.
  5. Sailesh BHAGHOE & Gavin OOFT, 2023. "Nowcasting quarterly GDP growth in Suriname with factor-MIDAS and mixed-frequency VAR models," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, EconSciences Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, March.
  6. Recep Ulucak & Ali Gökhan Yücel & Salih Çağrı İlkay, 2020. "Dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey: Panel data analysis using gravity model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1394-1414, December.
  7. Bacci, Livio Agnew & Mello, Luiz Gustavo & Incerti, Taynara & Paulo de Paiva, Anderson & Balestrassi, Pedro Paulo, 2019. "Optimization of combined time series methods to forecast the demand for coffee in Brazil: A new approach using Normal Boundary Intersection coupled with mixture designs of experiments and rotated factor scores," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 186-211.
  8. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Athanasopoulos, George, 2019. "Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for Australian tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 393-409.
  9. Xie, Gang & Qian, Yatong & Wang, Shouyang, 2020. "A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  10. Mariano Gallo & Rosa Anna La Rocca, 2022. "The Impact of High-Speed Rail Systems on Tourist Attractiveness in Italy: Regression Models and Numerical Results," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-33, October.
  11. Hassani, Hossein & Webster, Allan & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Heravi, Saeed, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Tourist arrivals using optimal Singular Spectrum Analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 322-335.
  12. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  13. Kaihua Deng, 2015. "Predicting By Learning: An Adaptive Rationale," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-14, December.
  14. Yuruixian Zhang & Wei Chong Choo & Yuhanis Abdul Aziz & Choy Leong Yee & Jen Sim Ho, 2022. "Go Wild for a While? A Bibliometric Analysis of Two Themes in Tourism Demand Forecasting from 1980 to 2021: Current Status and Development," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-38, July.
  15. Cang, Shuang & Yu, Hongnian, 2014. "A combination selection algorithm on forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 127-139.
  16. Jing Zeng, 2015. "Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  17. Chhorn, Theara & Chaiboonsri, Chukiat, 2017. "Modelling and Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Cambodia: An Application of ARIMA-GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 83942, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Dec 2017.
  18. George Athanasopoulos & Puwasala Gamakumara & Anastasios Panagiotelis & Rob J Hyndman & Mohamed Affan, 2019. "Hierarchical Forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/19, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  19. Jing Zeng, 2016. "Combining country-specific forecasts when forecasting Euro area macroeconomic aggregates," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 415-444, May.
  20. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Trapero, Juan R., 2014. "Improving forecasting by estimating time series structural components across multiple frequencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 291-302.
  21. Nowotarski, Jakub & Raviv, Eran & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2014. "An empirical comparison of alternative schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 395-412.
  22. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2017. "Forecasting with temporal hierarchies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(1), pages 60-74.
  23. Wang, Lu & Wang, Xing & Liang, Chao, 2024. "Natural gas volatility prediction via a novel combination of GARCH-MIDAS and one-class SVM," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  24. Xi Wu & Adam Blake, 2023. "Does the combination of models with different explanatory variables improve tourism demand forecasting performance?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(8), pages 2032-2056, December.
  25. Shaolong Suna & Dan Bi & Ju-e Guo & Shouyang Wang, 2020. "Seasonal and Trend Forecasting of Tourist Arrivals: An Adaptive Multiscale Ensemble Learning Approach," Papers 2002.08021, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
  26. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2016. "Forecasting with multivariate temporal aggregation: The case of promotional modelling," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(PA), pages 145-153.
  27. Elisa Jorge-González & Enrique González-Dávila & Raquel Martín-Rivero & Domingo Lorenzo-Díaz, 2020. "Univariate and multivariate forecasting of tourism demand using state-space models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 598-621, June.
  28. Peng, Bo & Song, Haiyan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2014. "A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 181-193.
  29. Larissa Koupriouchina & Jean-Pierre van der Rest & Zvi Schwartz, 2023. "Judgmental Adjustments of Algorithmic Hotel Occupancy Forecasts: Does User Override Frequency Impact Accuracy at Different Time Horizons?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(8), pages 2143-2164, December.
  30. Ji Wu & Xian Cheng & Stephen Shaoyi Liao, 2020. "Tourism forecast combination using the stochastic frontier analysis technique," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(7), pages 1086-1107, November.
  31. Barrow, Devon K. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2016. "Distributions of forecasting errors of forecast combinations: Implications for inventory management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 24-33.
  32. Marcos R. Fernandes, 2024. "Combining Combined Forecasts: a Network Approach," Papers 2406.13749, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
  33. Lu Wang & Feng Ma & Guoshan Liu, 2020. "Forecasting stock volatility in the presence of extreme shocks: Short‐term and long‐term effects," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 797-810, August.
  34. Manlika Ratchagit & Honglei Xu, 2022. "A Two-Delay Combination Model for Stock Price Prediction," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-21, September.
  35. Hatice Öncel Çekim & Ahmet Koyuncu, 2022. "The Impact of Google Trends on the Tourist Arrivals: A Case of Antalya Tourism," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, June.
  36. Jianzhou Wang & Ling Xiao & Jun Shi, 2014. "The Combination Forecasting of Electricity Price Based on Price Spikes Processing: A Case Study in South Australia," Abstract and Applied Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2014(1).
  37. Makridakis, Spyros & Hyndman, Rob J. & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2020. "Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 15-28.
  38. Nicholas Apergis & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 78-98, February.
  39. Ulrich Gunter, 2021. "Improving Hotel Room Demand Forecasts for Vienna across Hotel Classes and Forecast Horizons: Single Models and Combination Techniques Based on Encompassing Tests," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-36, November.
  40. Gunter, Ulrich & Önder, Irem, 2016. "Forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-212.
  41. Adriana Csikosova & Maria Janoskova & Katarina Culkova, 2020. "Application of Discriminant Analysis for Avoiding the Risk of Quarry Operation Failure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-14, September.
  42. Wang, Lu & Wu, Jiangbin & Cao, Yang & Hong, Yanran, 2022. "Forecasting renewable energy stock volatility using short and long-term Markov switching GARCH-MIDAS models: Either, neither or both?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  43. Chai, Jian & Zhang, Zhong-Yu & Wang, Shou-Yang & Lai, Kin Keung & Liu, John, 2014. "Aviation fuel demand development in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 224-235.
  44. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
  45. Dinis, Duarte & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana & Teixeira, Ângelo Palos, 2022. "Enhancing capacity planning through forecasting: An integrated tool for maintenance of complex product systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 178-192.
  46. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
  47. Massimiliano Giacalone, 2022. "Optimal forecasting accuracy using Lp-norm combination," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 80(2), pages 187-230, August.
  48. Miaomiao Ren & Wei Sun & Shu Chen & Decheng Zeng & Yutong Xie, 2024. "Inconsistent Monthly Runoff Prediction Models Using Mutation Tests and Machine Learning," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(13), pages 5235-5254, October.
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