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Die (Handels-)Kosten einer Nicht-EU

Author

Listed:
  • Felbermayr, Gabriel
  • Gröschl, Jasmin Katrin
  • Heiland, Inga
  • Stehn, Jürgen

Abstract

Die Autoren skizzieren die ökonomischen Kosten für die EU-Mitgliedstaaten bei einer Umkehr des Integrationsprozesses durch eine Abwicklung der Europäischen Zollunion, des Europäischen Binnenmarktes, der Europäischen Währungsunion, der Schengen-Vereinbarung und der Freihandelsabkommen der EU mit Drittländern. Sie kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass eine Abwicklung des EU-Binnenmarktes die stärksten negativen Effekte auf Produktion, Handel und Einkommen der Mitgliedsländer hätte. Besonders stark betroffen wären die Länder in Mittel-und Osteuropa, während etablierte EU-Mitglieder wie Deutschland, Frankreich oder Italien eher unterdurchschnittlich hohe Kosten zu tragen hätten. Die anderen, ebenfalls untersuchten Desintegrationsschritte hätten geringere Kosten zur Folge, diese wären aber durchaus spürbar, da sie Jahr für Jahr nach dem Desintegrationsschock anfallen würden.

Suggested Citation

  • Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin Katrin & Heiland, Inga & Stehn, Jürgen, 2019. "Die (Handels-)Kosten einer Nicht-EU," Kiel Policy Briefs 125, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Inga Heiland, 2018. "Undoing Europe in a New Quantitative Trade Model," ifo Working Paper Series 250, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
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