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Makroökonomisches Produktivitätswachstum in der neuen Ökonomie: empirischer Anspruch und methodische Unzulänglichkeiten

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  • Gundlach, Erich

Abstract

Im diesem Aufsatz wird der quantitative Zusammenhang zwischen dem langfristigen Produktivitätswachstum einer Volkswirtschaft in Form der Veränderungsrate des technischen Fortschritts und dem durchschnittlichen Niveau der Aktienbewertung untersucht. Der Ausgangspunkt ist dabei, dass eine höhere durchschnittliche Aktienbewertung ein höheres antizipiertes Produktivitätswachstum als in der Vergangenheit widerspiegeln sollte. Dauerhaft höhere Aktienkurse könnten demnach die empirische Relevanz der Neuen Ökonomie für ein dauerhaft höheres Wirtschaftswachstum signalisieren. Diesen theoretischen Überlegungen wird gegenübergestellt, ob und wie sich das Produktivitätswachstum in einer Reihe von Industrieländern seit Mitte der neunziger Jahre verändert hat. Im Mittelpunkt steht dabei die Entwicklung in den Vereinigten Staaten, die eine Vorreiter-Rolle für die Neue Ökonomie zu spielen scheinen.

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  • Gundlach, Erich, 2003. "Makroökonomisches Produktivitätswachstum in der neuen Ökonomie: empirischer Anspruch und methodische Unzulänglichkeiten," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3698, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:3698
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