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Optimal Post-Hoc Theorizing

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  • Chen, Andrew Y.

Abstract

For many economic questions, the empirical results are not interesting unless they are strong. For these questions, theorizing before the results are known is not always optimal. Instead, the optimal sequencing of theory and empirics trades off a "Darwinian Learning" effect from theorizing first with a "Statistical Learning" effect from examining the data first. This short paper formalizes the tradeoff in a Bayesian model. In the modern era of mature economic theory and enormous datasets, I argue that post hoc theorizing is typically optimal.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Andrew Y., 2025. "Optimal Post-Hoc Theorizing," I4R Discussion Paper Series 242, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:242
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    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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