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Does Uranium Mining Increase Civil Conflict Risk? Evidence from a Spatiotemporal Analysis of Africa from 1945 to 2010

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  • Koos, Carlo
  • Basedau, Matthias

Abstract

We employ a two-tier spatiotemporal analysis to investigate whether uranium operations cause armed conflict in Africa. The macrolevel analysis suggests that - compared to the baseline conflict risk - uranium ventures increase the risk of intrastate conflict by 10 percent. However, we find ethnic exclusion to be a much better predictor of armed conflict than uranium. The microlevel analysis reveals that uranium-spurred conflicts are spatiotemporally feasible in four countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Namibia, Niger and South Africa. We find strong evidence in the case of Niger, and partial evidence in the case of the DRC. Namibia and South Africa do not yield substantial evidence of uranium-induced conflicts. We conclude that uranium may theoretically be a conflictinducing resource, but to the present day empirical evidence has been sparse as most countries are still in the exploration phase. Considering that the coming years will see 25 African countries transition from uranium explorers into producers, we strongly suggest that our analysis be revisited in the coming years.

Suggested Citation

  • Koos, Carlo & Basedau, Matthias, 2012. "Does Uranium Mining Increase Civil Conflict Risk? Evidence from a Spatiotemporal Analysis of Africa from 1945 to 2010," GIGA Working Papers 205, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:gigawp:205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Randall J. Blimes, 2006. "The Indirect Effect of Ethnic Heterogeneity on the Likelihood of Civil War Onset," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(4), pages 536-547, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. de Juan, Alexander, 2012. "Mapping Political Violence – The Approaches and Conceptual Challenges of Subnational Geospatial Analyses of Intrastate Conflict," GIGA Working Papers 211, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

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