Designing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Framework for Pakistan: A Delphi Study Approach

The Objective of this study is to explore a suitable framework of Central Bank Digital Currency for Pakistan according to its unique socio-economic needs through Delphi and Analytical Network Processing Method. This study has used a mixed-method approach combining two distinct techniques to achieve a robust, expert-driven consensus on the design of CBDC for Pakistan. This study consisted of two phases. In the first phase, the modified electronic Delphi Method is used to gather and synthesise the expert opinions about CBDC. In the second phase, ANP is used to model complex relationships and determine the relative importance of different factors that can frame CBDC for Pakistan. The analysis was made through RStudio and Super Decision software. It revealed that the Hybrid CBDC model (64%), having a dual-tiered approach-combining features of both retail and wholesale CBDCs-is optimal for Pakistan, balancing accessibility for the public with institutional efficiency. The study also details designs, challenges, identification of key stakeholders, optimal timeline, regulatory and technological requirements to implement CBDC in Pakistan, according to the socioeconomic needs of Pakistan, based on Expert consensus. This study provides a tailored Framework of CBDC which will address key challenges, like Financial Inclusion, Informal economy and provide opportunities like modernise payment systems, and will also inform policy makers about the practical implications of CBDC. It also provides a clear, expert-validated road map for the State Bank of Pakistan to design and implement the CBDC.