Bringing Ukrainian Refugees Home: Scrutinising Economic Incentives and Challenges to Return

In this working paper I focus on the critical demographic situation in Ukraine caused by the 2022 Russian invasion, which threatens the prospects of post-war recovery and socio- economic revival. By and large, I argue for the need to develop and implement nationwide repatriation programmes targeting Ukrainian refugees based on economic (investment) incentives that may be effective in the context of the country of origin. Drawing on desk research of previous return scenarios in some post-conflict countries and a series of in- depth interviews with Ukrainian refugees in Austria and Germany, I launch into this discussion by outlining a conceptual framework for the voluntary return of forced migrants to Ukraine. These include: financing the restoration of destroyed housing for refugees and providing them with land plots for independent reconstruction, payment of significant financial assistance upon return, targeted grants to forced migrants for business development in Ukraine, financial incentives enhancing social welfare particularly for families with children and launching powerful investment projects with the participation of foreign capital. Then I deal with potential challenges that could significantly complicate the process of mass re-emigration. These include: the ongoing active hostilities, the conflict of economic interests between Ukraine and host countries (the case of Germany is considered), the socio-economic collapse of the homeland implying the lack of decently paid jobs in the country of origin, as well as inconsistent and often contradictory policy of the Ukrainian authorities towards returnees. I end with a number of policy suggestions which, if taken into account by the Ukrainian government, could increase the likelihood of voluntary return of forced migrants to Ukraine.