Gas demand in times of crisis: energy savings by consumer group in Germany

Russia curbed its natural gas supply to Europe in 2021 and 2022, creating a grave energy crisis. This paper empirically estimates the crisis response of natural gas consumers in Germany—for decades the largest export market for Russian gas. Using a multiple regression model, we estimate the response of small consumers, industry, and power stations separately, controlling for the non-linear temperature-heating relationship, seasonality, and trends. For industrial consumers, we find a strong and sustained response, with reductions steadily increasing from 4% in September 2021 to 29% in October 2022. For small consumers, including households and small enterprises, we find reductions between 10% and 42% from March to October 2022. Gas savings in the power sector are more volatile and not only driven by reduced Russian gas supply. We discuss the drivers behind these consumption reductions and draw conclusions on their role in coping with the crisis.