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What do simple short-term models say about the latest economic trends in Russia?

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  • Simola, Heli

Abstract

We consider the applicability of simple statistical models to Russia's short-term economic trends in a wartime context. We develop several composite indicators combining economic variables to predict Russian GDP trends both before and after the invasion if Ukraine in 2022. In addition, our SVAR model estimations highlight the exceptionality of wartime. Russia's actual GDP performance in 2022 is considerably weaker than predicted by our model. The situation then reverses in 2023 and particularly at end-2024 the GDP outperforms model predictions.

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  • Simola, Heli, 2025. "What do simple short-term models say about the latest economic trends in Russia?," BOFIT Policy Briefs 9/2025, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitb:317789
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jouko Rautava, 2013. "Oil Prices, Excess Uncertainty and Trend Growth," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 77-87.
    2. Simola, Heli, 2024. "Detecting irregularities in Russian economic statistics," BOFIT Policy Briefs 9/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Heiner Mikosch & Laura Solanko, 2019. "Forecasting Quarterly Russian GDP Growth with Mixed-Frequency Data," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 19-35, March.
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