IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Two Statistical Problems in the Princeton Project on the European Fertility Transition

  • Timothy W. Guinnane

    ()

    (Yale University, Faculty of Arts & Sciences, Department of Economics (Box 8268))

  • John Christopher Brown

    ()

    (Clark University, Department of Economics)

The Princeton Project on the Decline of Fertility in Europe (or European Fertility Project, hereafter EFP) was carried out at Princeton University's Office of Population Research in the 1960s and 1970s. This project aimed to characterize the decline of fertility that took place in Europe during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The project's summary statements argued that social and economic forces played little role in bringing about the fertility transition. The statement stresses instead a process of innovation and diffusion. A central feature of the EFP argument is a series of statistical exercises that purport to show that changes in economic and social conditions exerted little influence on fertility. Two recent papers on Germany for this period have used similar data and methods to draw different conclusions. These findings echo those of researchers working in other contexts, who increasingly find that economic and social factors play a strong role in fertility. We show that one reason for the new findings is some general statistical problems in the Princeton methodology. These are reason to temper acceptance of the Princeton project's larger message.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=445901
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm423.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 28 Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm423
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://icf.som.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm423. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.