IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wvu/wpaper/16-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Outcome Uncertainty, Fan Travel, and Aggregate Attendance

Author

Listed:
  • Brad R. Humphreys

    (West Virginia University, Department of Economics)

  • Thomas J. Miceli

    (University of Connecticut, Department of Economics)

Abstract

The classical Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (UOH) informs economists’ understanding consumer decisions to attend sporting events and models of team revenue generation. Coates, Humphreys and Zhou (2014) developed a reference dependent preference based consumer choice model under uncertainty to motivate the UOH in which loss-averse consumers prefer games with certain outcomes. We develop an alternative model based on a standard expected utility model of fan behavior which incorporates fans’ decisions to travel to away games and aggregates decisions across local and visiting fans. This model generates predictions consistent with the classical UOH and concave team and league-wide total revenue functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Brad R. Humphreys & Thomas J. Miceli, 2016. "Outcome Uncertainty, Fan Travel, and Aggregate Attendance," Working Papers 16-26, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    • Handle: RePEc:wvu:wpaper:16-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://busecon.wvu.edu/phd_economics/pdf/16-26.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Quinn Andrew Wesley Keefer, 2015. "Why Do People Support the Underdog?: Loss Aversion and Sports Fans," International Journal of Applied Behavioral Economics (IJABE), IGI Global, vol. 4(4), pages 17-35, October.
    2. Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 242-242.
    3. Dennis Coates & Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2014. "Reference-Dependent Preferences, Loss Aversion, And Live Game Attendance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 959-973, July.
    4. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 1, pages 1-78, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Rodney Fort & James Quirk, 1995. "Cross-subsidization, Incentives, and Outcomes in Professional Team Sports Leagues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1265-1299, September.
    6. El-Hodiri, Mohamed & Quirk, James, 1971. "An Economic Model of a Professional Sports League," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 1302-1319, Nov.-Dec..
    7. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 279-279.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gregory A. Falls & Paul A. Natke & Linlan Xiao, 2022. "College football attendance in the long run: The Football Championship Subdivision," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2172-2183, September.
    2. Brian M. Mills & Rodney Fort, 2023. "Performance Quality Preference Heterogeneity in Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(3), pages 352-373, April.
    3. Moonsup Hyun & Gareth J. Jones & Wonsok (Frank) Jee & Jeremy S. Jordan & James Du & Yohan Lee, 2023. "Revisiting the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis and the Loss Aversion Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association: Adding a Predicted Game Quality Perspective," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 1076-1096, December.
    4. Thomas J. Miceli, 2024. "A Note on the Preferences of Sports Fans: Partisanship Versus Uncertainty of Outcome," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 155-168, February.
    5. Hojun Sung & Hyunwoong Pyun, 2023. "Disaggregated Attendance Demand: Comparing Daily Ticket Purchasers and Season Ticket Holders in K-League 1," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(6), pages 717-736, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brian M. Mills & Rodney Fort, 2018. "Team-Level Time Series Analysis in MLB, the NBA, and the NHL," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(7), pages 911-933, October.
    2. Daniel Read & Aaron C.T. Smith & James Skinner, 2021. "A Comparative Analysis of Competitive Balance Between a Closed and an Open League in Rugby League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(8), pages 871-892, December.
    3. Markus LANG & Alexander RATHKE & Marco RUNKEL, 2010. "The Economic Consequences Of Foreigner Rules In National Sports Leagues," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 31, pages 47-64.
    4. Kelly Goossens, 2006. "Competitive balance in european football: comparison by adapting measures: national measure of seasonal imbalance and Top 3," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 2(2), pages 77-122, Dicembre.
    5. Raul Caruso & Francesco Addesa & Marco Di Domizio, 2019. "The Determinants of the TV Demand for Soccer: Empirical Evidence on Italian Serie A for the Period 2008-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 25-49, January.
    6. Helmut M. Dietl & Martin Grossmann & Markus Lang, 2011. "Competitive Balance and Revenue Sharing in Sports Leagues With Utility-Maximizing Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(3), pages 284-308, June.
    7. Yang-Ming Chang & Shane Sanders, 2009. "Pool Revenue Sharing, Team Investments, and Competitive Balance in Professional Sports A Theoretical Analysis," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(4), pages 409-428, August.
    8. Helmut Dietl & Egon Franck & Martin Grossmann & Markus Lang, 2009. "Contest Theory and its Applications in Sports," Working Papers 0029, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA).
    9. Steven Salaga & Alan Ostfield & Jason Winfree, 2014. "Revenue Sharing with Heterogeneous Investments in Sports Leagues: Share Media, Not Stadiums," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 45(1), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Stefan Szymanski & Stefan Késenne, 2010. "Competitive Balance and Gate Revenue Sharing in Team Sports," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 7, pages 229-243, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Allen R. Sanderson & John J. Siegfried, 2003. "Thinking about Competitive Balance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 4(4), pages 255-279, November.
    12. Wladimir Andreff, 2009. "Équilibre compétitif et contrainte budgétaire dans une ligue de sport professionnel," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(3), pages 591-633.
    13. Stefan Kesenne, 2007. "Revenue Sharing and Owner Profits in Professional Team Sports," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(5), pages 519-529, October.
    14. Stefan Szymanski, 2004. "Professional Team Sports Are Only a Game," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 5(2), pages 111-126, May.
    15. Wladimir Andreff, 2011. "Some comparative economics of the organization of sports: Competition and regulation in north American vs. European professional team sports leagues," Post-Print halshs-00677436, HAL.
    16. Stefan Szymanski & Tommaso M. Valletti, 2010. "Promotion and Relegation in Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 6, pages 198-228, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Dietl Helmut & Duschl Tobias & Franck Egon & Lang Markus, 2012. "A Contest Model of a Professional Sports League with Two-Sided Markets," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(3), pages 336-359, June.
    18. Helmut M. Dietl & Markus Lang & Alexander Rathke, 2011. "The Combined Effect Of Salary Restrictions And Revenue Sharing In Sports Leagues," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(2), pages 447-463, April.
    19. Dietl Helmut M & Duschl Tobias & Lang Markus, 2011. "Executive Pay Regulation: What Regulators, Shareholders, and Managers Can Learn from Major Sports Leagues," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-32, August.
    20. Helmut Dietl & Egon Franck & Markus Lang & Alexander Rathke, 2008. "Revenue Sharing, Reserve Clause and Salary Caps in Professional Team Sports Leagues," Working Papers 0026, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA), revised 2009.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    outcome uncertainty; game attendance; aggregation; travel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wvu:wpaper:16-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Feng Yao (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewvuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.