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Outcome Uncertainty, Fan Travel, and Aggregate Attendance

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  • Brad R. Humphreys

    (West Virginia University, Department of Economics)

  • Thomas J. Miceli

    (University of Connecticut, Department of Economics)

Abstract

The classical Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (UOH) informs economists’ understanding consumer decisions to attend sporting events and models of team revenue generation. Coates, Humphreys and Zhou (2014) developed a reference dependent preference based consumer choice model under uncertainty to motivate the UOH in which loss-averse consumers prefer games with certain outcomes. We develop an alternative model based on a standard expected utility model of fan behavior which incorporates fans’ decisions to travel to away games and aggregates decisions across local and visiting fans. This model generates predictions consistent with the classical UOH and concave team and league-wide total revenue functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Brad R. Humphreys & Thomas J. Miceli, 2016. "Outcome Uncertainty, Fan Travel, and Aggregate Attendance," Working Papers 16-26, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    • Handle: RePEc:wvu:wpaper:16-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Quinn Andrew Wesley Keefer, 2015. "Why Do People Support the Underdog?: Loss Aversion and Sports Fans," International Journal of Applied Behavioral Economics (IJABE), IGI Global Scientific Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 17-35, October.
    2. Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 242-242.
    3. Rodney Fort & James Quirk, 1995. "Cross-subsidization, Incentives, and Outcomes in Professional Team Sports Leagues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1265-1299, September.
    4. El-Hodiri, Mohamed & Quirk, James, 1971. "An Economic Model of a Professional Sports League," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 1302-1319, Nov.-Dec..
    5. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 1, pages 1-78, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Dennis Coates & Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2014. "Reference-Dependent Preferences, Loss Aversion, And Live Game Attendance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 959-973, July.
    7. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 279-279.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory A. Falls & Paul A. Natke & Linlan Xiao, 2022. "College football attendance in the long run: The Football Championship Subdivision," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2172-2183, September.
    2. Brian M. Mills & Rodney Fort, 2023. "Performance Quality Preference Heterogeneity in Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(3), pages 352-373, April.
    3. Moonsup Hyun & Gareth J. Jones & Wonsok (Frank) Jee & Jeremy S. Jordan & James Du & Yohan Lee, 2023. "Revisiting the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis and the Loss Aversion Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association: Adding a Predicted Game Quality Perspective," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 1076-1096, December.
    4. Thomas J. Miceli, 2024. "A Note on the Preferences of Sports Fans: Partisanship Versus Uncertainty of Outcome," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 155-168, February.
    5. Hojun Sung & Hyunwoong Pyun, 2023. "Disaggregated Attendance Demand: Comparing Daily Ticket Purchasers and Season Ticket Holders in K-League 1," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(6), pages 717-736, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

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