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Outcome Uncertainty, Fan Travel, And Aggregate Attendance

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  • Brad R. Humphreys
  • Thomas J. Miceli

Abstract

The uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH) informs economists' understanding of consumer decisions to attend sporting events and team revenue generation. We develop a model of fan behavior based on standard expected utility methods which incorporates fan heterogeneity in terms of decisions to travel to away games and strong preferences for wins. The model reflects aggregate attendance outcomes across local and visiting fans, generates predictions consistent with the UOH, and gives rise to concave league‐wide revenue functions. Empirical analysis of game outcomes and attendance at regular season National Basketball association games from 1979 to 2013 supports key predictions of the model. (JEL L83, D12, Z20)

Suggested Citation

  • Brad R. Humphreys & Thomas J. Miceli, 2020. "Outcome Uncertainty, Fan Travel, And Aggregate Attendance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(1), pages 462-473, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:58:y:2020:i:1:p:462-473
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12844
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rodney Fort & James Quirk, 1995. "Cross-subsidization, Incentives, and Outcomes in Professional Team Sports Leagues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1265-1299, September.
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    3. Quinn Andrew Wesley Keefer, 2015. "Why Do People Support the Underdog?: Loss Aversion and Sports Fans," International Journal of Applied Behavioral Economics (IJABE), IGI Global, vol. 4(4), pages 17-35, October.
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    5. Dennis Coates & Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2014. "Reference-Dependent Preferences, Loss Aversion, And Live Game Attendance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 959-973, July.
    6. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 1, pages 1-78, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas J. Miceli, 2024. "A Note on the Preferences of Sports Fans: Partisanship Versus Uncertainty of Outcome," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 155-168, February.
    2. Moonsup Hyun & Gareth J. Jones & Wonsok (Frank) Jee & Jeremy S. Jordan & James Du & Yohan Lee, 2023. "Revisiting the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis and the Loss Aversion Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association: Adding a Predicted Game Quality Perspective," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 1076-1096, December.
    3. Gregory A. Falls & Paul A. Natke & Linlan Xiao, 2022. "College football attendance in the long run: The Football Championship Subdivision," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2172-2183, September.
    4. Brian M. Mills & Rodney Fort, 2023. "Performance Quality Preference Heterogeneity in Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(3), pages 352-373, April.
    5. Hojun Sung & Hyunwoong Pyun, 2023. "Disaggregated Attendance Demand: Comparing Daily Ticket Purchasers and Season Ticket Holders in K-League 1," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(6), pages 717-736, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

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